New York (ET) — As of 4:38 a.m. on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend.
The most recent available quote for Banco Bradesco S.A.’s NYSE-listed ADR (NYSE: BBD) is $3.35, slightly lower on the last reported print, while BBDO (the common-share ADR) was last seen around $2.93.
That matters because any fresh headlines, FX moves in the Brazilian real, or global risk sentiment changes over the weekend won’t be “priced in” until the next regular session. With year-end liquidity often thinner than usual, gaps at the open can be larger than investors expect—especially for emerging-market financials like Bradesco.
Where Banco Bradesco stock stands right now
The latest available U.S. quote shows BBD at $3.35, with the most recent trade timestamped late Friday evening (ET) after the regular session—so treat it as the latest reported price, not a live Saturday market.
For investors who follow both tickers:
- BBD is Bradesco’s preferred-share ADR
- BBDO is Bradesco’s common-share ADR
- Bradesco says its ADR ratio is 1:1 (each ADR corresponds to one underlying share). [1]
That structure makes ADR pricing sensitive not only to Bradesco fundamentals, but also to:
- Brazil’s interest-rate path,
- credit quality trends, and
- BRL/USD currency moves (because the underlying economics are in reais).
The headlines moving Bradesco: dividends, ratings, and a profitability rebuild
1) Bradesco approved a large “interest on equity” distribution
In mid-December, Bradesco’s board approved supplementary interest on shareholders’ equity totaling R$3.9 billion, detailing per-share amounts, the entitlement date, and the payment deadline (which can extend into 2026). [2]
Key points disclosed by the bank include:
- Entitlement base date: December 29, 2025
- Ex-right date (Brazil market convention): December 30, 2025
- Payment deadline: by July 31, 2026
- The bank also reiterated that withholding tax treatment can apply (with exemptions for certain legal entities). [3]
Why it matters for the stock: Brazil’s banking payouts often come through this “interest on equity” mechanism, and the timing/structure affects income-focused holders—especially ADR investors who receive payments through the depositary process.
Bradesco’s IR site also notes that cash distributions tied to the shares backing ADRs are paid to the depositary bank abroad, which then transfers them to holders, generally within an “average period of ten days” after payment in Brazil. [4]
2) Fitch revised Bradesco’s outlook to Stable
On December 12, 2025, Fitch affirmed Bradesco’s long- and short-term IDRs (Issuer Default Ratings) and revised the outlook to Stable from Negative, citing sustained improvement in profitability and asset quality while capital and liquidity metrics remain solid. [5]
Fitch’s rationale is particularly relevant to equity investors because it’s essentially a third-party scoreboard for the bank’s turnaround narrative:
- Fitch highlighted lower Stage 3 exposures, a decline/stabilization in >90-day NPLs, and a reduction in restructured loans. [6]
- Fitch pointed to CET1 around 11.4% (as of September 2025) and projected CET1 staying above 11% through 2026 in its base view. [7]
- Fitch also discussed coverage and impaired-loan buffers, and even laid out a medium-term view where Stage 3 loans could trend toward ~6% through 2027 if the bank’s secured-lending mix continues to mature. [8]
The report lists Jean Lopes (Primary Rating Analyst) among the Fitch analysts on the note—useful context for readers who track the research trail behind rating actions. [9]
Earnings snapshot: what Bradesco reported in 3Q25
Bradesco’s most recent quarterly results (for the period ending September 2025) are the backbone behind much of the improving narrative.
From the bank’s filings and results materials, highlights include:
- Recurring net income:R$6.2 billion, up 18.8% year over year
- ROAE:14.7%
- Expanded loan portfolio: about R$1.03 trillion
- >90-day delinquency ratio:4.1% (stable quarter over quarter)
- Tier 1 capital ratio:13.4%
- Continued strength in the insurance arm, with insurance operations contributing meaningfully to group earnings. [10]
Reuters also reported the quarter as in line with analyst expectations (via an LSEG poll) and noted Bradesco’s comment that it was taking another step in boosting profitability while keeping delinquency under control. [11]
One nuance equity investors often miss: Bradesco’s rebuild isn’t just “rates go up, banks win.” The bank has been actively reshaping credit mix, cleaning up problem assets, and leaning into fee and insurance contributions—exactly the kind of diversification that can matter if Brazil’s economy slows.
Guidance context: what Bradesco expected for 2025
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Bradesco set a comparatively conservative posture for the year, including:
- Loan portfolio growth projected between 4% and 8%
- Operating expenses expected to rise 5% to 9% due to investments in the turnaround plan
- Fee and commission income expected to grow 4% to 8% [12]
By the time Bradesco posted its 3Q25 numbers, the conversation had shifted toward whether the bank could keep improving profitability while preserving credit discipline—especially with Brazil’s rate backdrop still restrictive.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for BBD
Forecasts differ by provider, but the current, widely-circulated sell-side picture still leans constructive.
Investing.com’s compiled consensus (based on the prior three months of polling shown on its page) indicates:
- Overall consensus: Buy
- Average 12-month target:$3.72 (about +11% from the referenced price on that page)
- A displayed range with high estimate $4.50 and low estimate $3.10
- It also lists several firm-level rating actions, including entries for Goldman Sachs and HSBC in 2025. [13]
How to interpret that intelligently:
- For an ADR like BBD, “price target accuracy” is a three-body problem: the bank’s operations, Brazil macro/rates, and FX.
- Targets can look modestly above the market while still embedding meaningful uncertainty around Brazil’s easing cycle and credit costs.
The macro backdrop: Brazil rates are still high—and that cuts both ways
Brazil’s central bank held rates at 15% and kept a hawkish tone
Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate at 15% for the fourth straight meeting in December and gave no clear hint of imminent cuts, according to Reuters. [14]
Reuters also quoted economists parsing the tone:
- Carlos Lopes (Banco BV) said the communication changed very little, suggesting low conviction about starting cuts as soon as January. [15]
- Felipe Salles (C6 Bank) said cuts may be getting closer but “still not ripe,” and he expected an initial cut in March in his base view. [16]
For Bradesco shareholders, the implication is subtle:
- High rates can support net interest income, but
- They can also pressure borrowers, raising credit risk and slowing demand—especially if economic activity loses momentum.
Brazil’s government trimmed growth and inflation forecasts
Reuters also reported Brazil’s Finance Ministry trimmed its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% and lowered its 2025 inflation projection to 4.6%, explicitly linking the slowdown to the lagged effects of restrictive monetary policy. [17]
A slowing economy is not automatically bearish for a bank—but it tends to put more weight on:
- underwriting quality,
- secured vs. unsecured mix,
- provisioning discipline, and
- fee/insurance resilience.
Global rates context still matters for EM financials
Zooming out, Reuters noted that 2025 saw one of the biggest coordinated easing pushes by major central banks in over a decade—while also emphasizing uncertainty around the path into 2026. [18]
That matters because global rate differentials and risk appetite influence capital flows into (or out of) emerging-market ADRs like BBD.
If the market is closed now, what should investors watch before the next session?
Because it’s Saturday in New York and the NYSE is closed, the practical investor question becomes: “What could change between now and Monday’s open that would move BBD?”
Here are the big items to monitor:
1) Brazil rate-cut expectations (and the tone, not just the decision).
Markets don’t trade on the level of 15% as much as they trade on the direction and confidence around eventual easing. Reuters reporting shows investors are highly sensitive to signaling (or lack of it). [19]
2) Credit quality indicators: NPLs, restructured loans, and coverage.
Bradesco’s reported >90-day delinquency at 4.1% and the narrative around portfolio cleanup were central to both market and rating-agency reactions. [20]
3) Distribution mechanics for ADR holders.
Bradesco’s supplementary interest on equity has specific entitlement and payment details, and ADR timing can differ operationally because transfers go through the depositary channel. [21]
If you’re trading around payout events, confirm how your broker handles ADR corporate actions.
4) Currency risk (BRL/USD).
Even if Bradesco executes well operationally, a sharp move in the real can dominate short-term ADR pricing.
5) Year-end liquidity and “gap risk.”
In the final trading days of the year, spreads and gaps can widen—particularly in lower-priced ADRs—so risk controls (position sizing, limit orders) matter more than usual.
The bottom line for Banco Bradesco (BBD) stock going into the next open
Banco Bradesco enters the final stretch of 2025 with three supportive pillars in the public record:
- Improving profitability and steady credit metrics in 3Q25, including recurring profit growth and stable reported delinquency. [22]
- A credit-rating outlook upgrade to Stable from Fitch that explicitly ties the move to profitability and asset-quality improvement. [23]
- Ongoing shareholder remuneration actions—most recently a R$3.9 billion supplementary interest on equity approval—with clear mechanical details for entitlement and payment timing. [24]
Against that, the main swing factors remain macro: Brazil’s still-high policy rate, the timing of eventual cuts, and how slowing growth affects borrower health. [25]
References
1. www.bradescori.com.br, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.bradescori.com.br, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.reuters.com
