New York time check: As of 4:49 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed. When trading paused Friday, Lionsgate Studios Corp (NYSE: LION) finished at about $9.31, up roughly 4.7% on the session, after touching levels near its 52-week high. [1]
That sharp move matters because it’s happening in a very specific market mood: the final stretch of the year, with thin liquidity, “Santa Claus rally” seasonality, and investors reacting to a mix of rate-cut optimism and year-end positioning.
The market backdrop: thin year-end trading, but indexes still sitting near the highs
Friday’s broader tape was quiet. Wall Street ended the post-Christmas session nearly unchanged with light volume, snapping a short winning streak but staying close to record territory—classic “late-December” behavior when many institutions are already in year-end mode. [2]
Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the pause as the market “catching our breath” after a strong run—while noting the “Santa Claus rally” window still had days left. [3]
Rates are also part of the story. The Federal Reserve’s December 2025 meeting delivered another 25-basis-point cut, bringing the fed funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, while signaling there’s no guaranteed straight line to more near-term cuts. [4]
For media companies with meaningful financing needs, the direction of rates can influence sentiment quickly—even when the company-specific catalyst is something totally different (like advertising tech).
LION stock snapshot: why the current level has traders paying attention
Heading into the weekend, LION is trading in striking distance of a fresh peak. Recent market data puts the stock around $9.31 with a day range roughly $8.87–$9.41, and a 52-week range near $5.55–$9.41—meaning it’s pressing the top end of its one-year band. [5]
A few fundamentals that often show up in investor “quick takes” on Lionsgate Studios:
- Market cap: roughly $2.7B [6]
- Business mix: motion picture + television production, plus monetization of a deep library and expanding channel footprint [7]
- Volatility profile: beta shown around 0.42 on some market trackers (lower than many high-growth media names, though any single stock can still move fast on headlines). [8]
In plain English: the stock is acting like a headline-driven, catalyst-sensitive media name right now—exactly the kind of situation where weekend newsflow can matter disproportionately for Monday’s open.
The catalyst investors are talking about: Lionsgate’s FAST ad monetization push
The most concrete near-term headline is Lionsgate’s deeper move into ad tech for its streaming footprint.
On December 18, 2025, FreeWheel announced it became the exclusive ad-serving partner across Lionsgate’s portfolio of nearly 30 U.S. FAST channels, giving media buyers direct access to that inventory through the FreeWheel SSP for direct or programmatic transactions. [9]
FreeWheel’s Greg Bel (VP of Supply) framed it as a way to “unify ad-serving” and help Lionsgate “maximize yield” while giving buyers a more streamlined path to “premium, brand-safe streaming environments.” [10]
And the AdExchanger reporting adds useful texture on why Lionsgate is doing this now. Chase Brisbin, Lionsgate EVP and head of global channels, said the company ran an RFP as it began taking “more control over our inventory,” after seeing strong viewership but relatively low CPMs—essentially trying to move from “we have channels” to “we have channels we can price like premium video.” [11]
Why FAST matters to LION shareholders
FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) is one of the big “unsexy but important” monetization lanes for large content libraries. If you own a lot of recognizable titles and can package them into always-on channels, you can turn back-catalog assets into recurring ad inventory—especially when the ad stack improves (better targeting, cleaner supply paths, less friction).
That doesn’t magically fix everything in a studio model—box office and TV delivery timing still create lumpy quarters—but it can help investors underwrite a steadier baseline value for the library.
Earnings reality check: what Lionsgate just told investors about its pipeline
In its fiscal Q2 2026 results (reported November 6, 2025), Lionsgate Studios posted:
- Revenue: about $475 million
- Net loss from continuing operations attributable to shareholders: about $112 million
- Adjusted OIBDA: about $14.1 million
- Trailing 12-month library revenue: up 13% to a record $1.0 billion
- Backlog: up 31% sequentially to nearly $1.6 billion [12]
CEO Jon Feltheimer said the quarter was in line with expectations and pointed to “significant growth” over the next two quarters and into fiscal 2027, citing a film slate “primed” for growth and a refilled TV pipeline. [13]
Two key takeaways investors tend to focus on from that release:
- Library strength is becoming a centerpiece metric. Record trailing 12-month library revenue suggests the catalog isn’t just a trophy—it’s being actively monetized. [14]
- Backlog growth implies forward visibility. Backlog doesn’t guarantee margin quality, but it signals contracted future revenue not yet recognized—often helpful for confidence when quarterly results are timing-driven. [15]
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street thinks LION could go next
Analyst targets aren’t destiny, but they do shape investor expectations—especially when a stock is at/near a 52-week high and people are asking, “Is there still room?”
Across major forecast aggregators:
- TradingView shows an average 1-year target around $9.28, with a high estimate of $11 and low estimate of $8, and an overall rating summarized as Buy. [16]
- Investing.com displays a similar analyst target range (about $8–$11) and an average around $9.28, also noting the 52-week range that tops out near $9.41. [17]
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target around $9.14, with the same general $8–$11 range. [18]
The headline implication: at Friday’s levels, the stock is trading near the middle of many consensus target ranges, and in some datasets above the average target—one reason you may see more “hold/trim vs. chase” commentary if the stock spikes again on thin liquidity.
Other current headlines investors should have on their radar
1) Post-separation clarity: Lionsgate Studios is now the “pure play” content company
Lionsgate completed the separation of its Studio and STARZ businesses in May 2025, with Lionsgate trading under LION and the dual-share structure collapsed into a single class of stock. [19]
STARZ began trading separately under STRZ on Nasdaq. [20]
Why it matters: investors can now value the studio/library business on its own merits, without the STARZ cable/streaming bundle muddying the picture.
2) Roblox licensing: a different monetization path for Lionsgate IP
In mid-2025, Reuters reported Roblox launched an IP licensing platform and partnered with Lionsgate (alongside Netflix and others), aiming to make it easier for creators to build experiences using well-known franchises. [21]
Roblox’s own announcement listed Lionsgate-related properties in its initial catalog—including franchises like Twilight, Saw, Divergent, and Now You See Me. [22]
This is less about near-term EPS and more about keeping franchises culturally alive (and monetizable) in places where younger audiences actually spend time.
3) Newark studio project: long-term production footprint expansion
In New Jersey, partners announced construction has begun on “Lionsgate Newark,” described as the state’s first purpose-built film/TV studio complex, targeted to open in 2027, with Lionsgate as long-term anchor tenant and naming-rights holder. [23]
It’s not the kind of capex headline that moves a stock every day—but in a market obsessed with “content supply,” production scale and infrastructure can become part of the long-term narrative.
4) Insider transaction: what the Form 4 shows
A recent SEC Form 4 shows Lionsgate Studios COO Brian Goldsmith sold 25,000 shares on December 18, 2025, at a weighted average price reported around $8.54, with holdings remaining far larger after the sale. [24]
Insider sales can mean many things (tax planning, diversification, scheduled selling plans). Investors typically weigh pattern and size rather than reacting to a single print.
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s Saturday, there’s no regular-session price discovery until Monday, December 29, 2025. Here’s what matters heading into that open:
The next NYSE session and what “open” really means
NYSE core trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with pre-opening order entry earlier in the morning. [25]
With only a few sessions left in the year, liquidity can be thinner and moves can look bigger than they “should” on fundamental news.
Watch the macro calendar (yes, even for a studio stock)
Year-end doesn’t mean “no data.” A Scotiabank calendar for the week ahead lists:
- Mon, Dec. 29: U.S. Pending Home Sales (10:00 a.m.)
- Tue, Dec. 30:S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 a.m.) and Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.)
- Wed, Dec. 31:FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m.) [26]
For LION specifically, macro prints usually matter through risk appetite (are traders buying small/mid caps?) and ad-market sentiment (brand spend expectations), rather than direct operational impact.
Practical “Monday setup” considerations for LION
With the stock pressing its 52-week ceiling zone (around $9.41), Monday’s action often comes down to three simple questions:
- Does it hold above the $9 area early, or fade on profit-taking? (Year-end tends to invite quick de-risking.) [27]
- Is there fresh weekend newsflow (deal chatter, ratings changes, new partnerships) that re-prices the narrative?
- How’s the tape overall? Friday’s market showed low-conviction drift near highs—if Monday opens risk-on, headline-sensitive names can gap quickly. [28]
Bottom line: Lionsgate Studios Corp stock is moving like a company investors want to own for its library and distribution leverage—especially as FAST monetization gets more sophisticated—while still carrying the inherent lumpiness of film/TV timing and a loss-making recent quarter. The next session (Monday) lands in the heart of year-end trading, where liquidity and headlines can matter as much as spreadsheets.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.nuveen.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.freewheel.com, 10. www.freewheel.com, 11. www.adexchanger.com, 12. investors.lionsgate.com, 13. investors.lionsgate.com, 14. investors.lionsgate.com, 15. investors.lionsgate.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. in.investing.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. investors.lionsgate.com, 20. www.prnewswire.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. corp.roblox.com, 23. www.njpac.org, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.nyse.com, 26. www.scotiabank.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.reuters.com
