NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:41 a.m. ET — Market Closed (NYSE/Nasdaq; weekend)
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is heading into the next U.S. trading session after a sharp Friday pullback that underscored why quantum-computing “pure plays” can trade like rockets on the way up—and like trapdoors on the way down.
RGTI finished Friday, Dec. 26 at $22.38, down $2.13 (-8.69%), after trading in a $22.33–$24.37 range. In late trading, shares were indicated slightly higher at $22.44 (+0.27%) as of 7:59 p.m. ET. 1
With U.S. markets closed Saturday, investors now shift from reacting to minute-by-minute price swings to a more useful question: what matters most before the next opening bell on Monday, Dec. 29—especially for a high-beta, headline-sensitive stock like Rigetti.
RGTI stock: what happened Friday—and why it matters into Monday
Two forces collided on Friday:
- Thin, holiday-affected liquidity, when fewer institutional desks are fully staffed and price can move more on marginal flows. Benzinga described recent action in quantum names as fitting a “holiday gap” pattern, where lower volume can amplify retail-driven moves. 2
- A broader market backdrop that was quiet but near record territory. Reuters reported that Wall Street ended a light-volume post-Christmas session nearly unchanged, with the “Santa Claus rally” window underway and investors still focused on rate-cut expectations and year-end positioning. 3
When liquidity is thin, high-volatility themes—quantum computing is near the top of that list—can overshoot quickly in both directions. Friday’s decline didn’t arrive with a single, company-specific bombshell; instead, it looked like a momentum reset after earlier enthusiasm in the group. 2
The last 24–48 hours: the headlines driving the conversation
In the past two days, the RGTI narrative has been shaped less by new filings or product announcements and more by price action, positioning, and valuation debate:
- Benzinga (Dec. 26): framed the move as a reversal after earlier-week momentum in quantum stocks, highlighting holiday-thinned trading conditions and pointing to Wedbush’s Outperform initiation and a $35 target as part of the bullish backdrop. 2
- MarketBeat (Dec. 26): recapped the session decline, volume dynamics, and reiterated a Street view that leans positive on ratings—while acknowledging the business’s unprofitability and uneven revenue trend. 4
- MarketBeat (Dec. 27): reported an institutional-positioning datapoint: Osaic Holdings increased its stake, based on a Form 13F filing. 5
- The Motley Fool / Nasdaq syndication (Dec. 25–26): ran multiple analysis pieces focusing on the same tension that keeps showing up in Rigetti coverage: ambitious technical milestones vs. current fundamentals and a sky-high valuation. 6
Taken together, the last 48 hours have been less “new Rigetti news” and more “the market arguing with itself” about what a quantum-computing pure play should be worth—especially at year-end.
Institutional and “big money” positioning: what filings are showing
A fresh institutional mention arrived Saturday morning: Osaic Holdings increased its stake by 119.2%, ending the period with 260,307 shares (about 0.08% ownership), valued around $3.09 million at quarter-end, MarketBeat reported. 5
Meanwhile, a separate Motley Fool analysis summarized several high-profile positions drawn from SEC filings, pointing to ownership and additions by large managers such as Vanguard and BlackRock, and hedge-fund activity that included Millennium Management, Citadel Advisors, and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors. (These references are based on reported filings and don’t indicate their current-day trades.) 7
The takeaway for Monday isn’t that institutions are “right” or “wrong”—it’s that Rigetti has become “crowded” enough to attract both institutional interest and heavy speculative trading, which can intensify swings around catalysts, narratives, and liquidity shifts.
Analyst forecasts and targets: where Wall Street sits now
Across mainstream “consensus” trackers, the tone is cautiously constructive—but targets vary widely, reflecting big uncertainty about timing and commercialization in quantum computing.
MarketBeat’s roundup cited an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $31.22. It also listed several recent targets and rating actions, including:
- Wedbush: initiated coverage with an Outperform and a $35 target (Dec. 17) 4
- Williams Trading:$40 target 4
- Benchmark: reduced target from $50 to $40, maintaining a Buy 4
- B. Riley: moved to Neutral with a $35 target after previously being higher 4
Another widely cited bullish datapoint comes from MarketWatch coverage: Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh initiated with an Outperform and a $50 target, arguing the technology could be a major future compute revolution and referencing an estimate of a sizable total addressable market over time. 8
That’s the bullish setup in one sentence: the Street is willing to pay for the possibility that Rigetti becomes a meaningful platform in quantum hardware and services. The bearish counterpoint—loud this week—is valuation.
The fundamental debate: tiny revenue today, big roadmap tomorrow
Even optimistic coverage tends to acknowledge the same hard math: Rigetti’s revenue remains small relative to its market value, and the company is still deeply unprofitable.
A Nasdaq-published Motley Fool piece noted that Rigetti’s trailing revenue has been limited and that the stock has traded at extremely elevated valuation metrics versus mega-cap tech peers. Nasdaq+1
MarketBeat also highlighted the disconnect between operating performance and the market’s enthusiasm, pointing to the latest quarterly revenue and ongoing losses. 4
That said, Rigetti has repeatedly emphasized a forward-looking technology roadmap—one reason the stock remains a magnet for speculative capital.
In a GlobeNewswire release tied to Q3 2025 results, CEO Dr. Subodh Kulkarni said the company remained “on track” to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by the end of 2025, and the company laid out targets of a 150+ qubit system by around end-2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by around end-2027, alongside higher projected two-qubit gate fidelities. 9
The same release also detailed commercial progress: Rigetti said it had secured purchase orders totaling about $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera systems, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2026. 9
And importantly for investors watching dilution risk, the company reported substantial liquidity at that time—around $600 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments as of early November 2025 (per the release). 9
So the bull case has a clean narrative arc:
- cash runway + roadmap milestones + early commercial orders
versus
the bear case: - current revenue scale + losses + valuation.
Short interest and volatility: the “squeeze fuel” is still there
Rigetti remains a stock where positioning can matter almost as much as product updates.
MarketBeat’s short-interest page reported that as of Dec. 15, 2025, Rigetti had short interest of 41.25 million shares, about 12.50% of the public float, with a days-to-cover ratio around 1.1. 10
That’s not automatically bullish or bearish—but it is a reminder that fast rallies can force fast covers, and fast drops can accelerate as momentum traders exit. In other words: expect drama.
Reuters captured the psychological core of the quantum trade in an earlier sector piece—excitement about “future computing” colliding with the uncomfortable question of valuation. Interactive Brokers chief market strategist Steve Sosnick put it bluntly: “What is the right price to pay for a piece of the future?” 11
Rigetti tends to live inside that question.
Earnings and catalysts calendar: what investors should know before the next session
Because markets are closed now, weekend preparation is mostly about identifying what could plausibly move the stock on Monday.
1) Next earnings window
MarketBeat lists Rigetti’s next earnings date as estimated Wednesday, March 4, 2026 (after market close), based on prior reporting cadence. 1
2) Contract headlines and deliveries
Investors will keep scanning for updates tied to:
- government/defense-related quantum work, and
- timing of delivery/revenue recognition for the Novera purchase orders discussed previously. 9
3) Analyst notes and sector sentiment
In the last 48 hours, attention has clustered around valuation and targets (Wedbush, Mizuho, and others). Any incremental analyst commentary—especially heading into a thin year-end tape—can move price disproportionately. 2
4) Broader market tone entering Monday
Year-end sessions can be quirky: liquidity, tax positioning, and risk-on/risk-off rotations can dominate. Reuters’ description of muted trading near highs is a good snapshot of the current environment. 3
What investors should keep in mind before Monday’s open
Rigetti is not a typical “earnings-and-margins” stock right now. It trades like a narrative-sensitive, milestone-driven option on quantum commercialization—with real engineering underneath it, but also real uncertainty about timelines.
Going into the next session, the most practical checklist looks like this:
- Watch liquidity and spreads early Monday. Thin conditions can persist into year-end, and RGTI can gap quickly in either direction. 2
- Separate roadmap from revenue recognition. The company’s technical targets (100+ qubits, then 150+, then 1,000+) are important, but the market often reprices the stock based on whether milestones translate into contracts, deployments, and repeat customers. 9
- Treat price targets as scenarios, not promises. The current spread—from mid-$30s targets to $50 targets in recent coverage—reflects uncertainty, not precision. 4
- Respect positioning risk. With meaningful short interest and a history of sharp moves, RGTI can punish both complacent longs and overconfident shorts. 10
For investors who like the quantum theme but dislike single-stock turbulence, the subtext of nearly every “forecast” piece this week is the same: Rigetti can move massively on breakthroughs, but it can also reprice violently when hype outruns fundamentals. 6
