New York time check: It is 7:53 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, meaning the Nasdaq Stock Market is closed right now and won’t reopen until Monday’s regular session. [1]
With just a few trading days left in 2025, the Nasdaq story is less about one dramatic headline and more about a familiar year-end cocktail: thin liquidity, index levels near records, AI/mega-cap leadership, and a market that’s already pricing in a lot of “good news” for 2026.
Where the Nasdaq stands heading into the final sessions of 2025
The Nasdaq Composite ended the last session (Friday, Dec. 26) at 23,593.10, down 0.09% on the day—essentially flat in post-holiday trading. [2]
For context, Friday’s tape looked like a market catching its breath rather than changing its mind:
- S&P 500: 6,929.94 (down 0.03%)
- Dow: 48,710.97 (down 0.04%) [3]
Zoom out and the Nasdaq still has the upper hand: the Nasdaq Composite is up about 22% in 2025, and it added roughly 1.2% over the week despite the quiet finish. [4]
Why Friday felt “quiet” — and why that matters for Monday
Reuters described Friday as a light-volume session with “few catalysts,” and that’s doing a lot of work in one sentence. In holiday weeks, lower participation can exaggerate price moves, widen spreads, and make breakouts (or breakdowns) less trustworthy. [5]
That’s one reason investors often treat late-December price action as a sentiment read rather than a full fundamental verdict—especially for Nasdaq, where mega-cap tech can pull the whole index around.
The “Santa Rally” is underway — signal, superstition, or both?
Market chatter is now orbiting the Santa Claus rally window: the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year. Several outlets note the period is historically positive more often than not, though nobody should confuse “seasonality” with destiny. [6]
Two strategist takes capturing the mood:
- Ryan Detrick (Carson Group) framed the late-week pause as normal after a strong run and said there may still be “upward bias” as the period continues. [7]
- Adam Turnquist (LPL Financial) highlighted that the Santa-rally window has historically outperformed a typical seven-day stretch. [8]
The practical takeaway for Nasdaq investors: seasonality can amplify positioning, but rates, earnings, and AI valuations will be the real adult supervision in 2026. [9]
What actually moved Nasdaq names this week: AI headlines and mega-cap gravity
Even in a quiet session, Nasdaq tends to have a few gravity wells.
One notable headline from Reuters: Nvidia gained after agreeing to license chip technology from startup Groq and hire its CEO, an example of how the AI buildout continues to generate corporate news that investors treat as strategically meaningful—not just “another product update.” [10]
Zooming out, multiple analyses point to the same tension inside the Nasdaq narrative:
- Bull case: AI spending and productivity gains broaden earnings strength beyond a handful of winners. [11]
- Bear case: Valuations and the scale of infrastructure spending (capex) raise the risk of disappointment if growth doesn’t arrive fast enough. [12]
Investopedia’s year-ahead analysis captured that debate sharply, pointing to concerns about whether AI investment levels are “sustainable” and whether markets are rewarding “buy the dip” behavior too aggressively. [13]
Wall Street’s 2026 outlook: supportive… but with landmines for tech-heavy indexes
Because the Nasdaq is so concentrated in large tech and communications stocks, broad-market 2026 forecasts matter—but the reasons behind those forecasts matter even more.
The optimistic baseline
Investopedia reported that strategists, on average, still expect additional gains in 2026, with earnings growth as the core engine—while repeatedly warning that volatility and concentration risks haven’t disappeared. [14]
Meanwhile, Reuters’ “week ahead” coverage underscored how close markets are to psychologically significant levels (like the S&P 500 nearing 7,000), and noted that investors will be watching whether momentum holds into year-end. [15]
The caution that matters most for Nasdaq
The Nasdaq-specific issue isn’t whether the economy is “okay.” It’s whether AI-heavy expectations and mega-cap pricing leave little room for error.
Investopedia cited:
- LPL Financial CIO Mark Zabicki warning investors to stay prepared for volatility, particularly given market concentration. [16]
- Vanguard analysts arguing returns could stay solid but that “risks are growing,” especially in tech. [17]
- Debate over whether the AI rally resembles a durable boom or something closer to a valuation bubble—while noting today’s leaders generally have stronger earnings and cash flow than late-1990s analogs. [18]
Where big-bank targets land (broad market)
A Nasdaq-hosted Motley Fool piece summarized how widely forecasts vary, citing projections such as Bank of America ~7,100, Morgan Stanley ~7,800, and Deutsche Bank ~8,000 for the S&P 500—useful not because Nasdaq tracks the S&P, but because it shows how “bullish consensus” can form while still being fragile. [19]
What investors should know before the next Nasdaq session (Monday, Dec. 29)
Since the market is closed now, the most useful prep is a short checklist of known catalysts and liquidity constraints.
1) The upcoming data calendar is thin—but not empty
From the New York Fed’s economic calendar, Monday, Dec. 29 includes:
- Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m. ET)
- NAR Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m. ET)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 a.m. ET) [20]
In low-volume weeks, even “secondary” data can move rates—and rates can move the Nasdaq.
2) Fed minutes are on the near-term radar
Reuters flagged Fed minutes as a key focal point in the holiday-shortened week ahead, as markets keep trying to price the path of 2026 rate cuts. [21]
For Nasdaq, the mechanism is simple: if minutes push bond yields higher, long-duration growth stocks often feel it first.
3) Expect holiday liquidity quirks to persist
Year-end flows (rebalancing, window dressing, tax positioning) can move stocks in ways that don’t map cleanly to fundamentals—especially in indexes dominated by a handful of mega-caps. Reuters explicitly noted the risk that light volumes can exaggerate moves. [22]
Trading schedule: what’s open, what’s closed, and what’s different next week
Here’s the clean version investors can plan around:
- Nasdaq regular hours: 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET
- Extended trading: pre-market 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET; after-hours 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET [23]
- New Year’s Eve (Wed., Dec. 31): stocks trade a full day, though Investopedia notes bonds close early at 2 p.m. ET [24]
- New Year’s Day (Thu., Jan. 1, 2026): markets closed [25]
A practical “before Monday” Nasdaq checklist
No crystal balls—just sane prep:
- Know your catalysts: Fed minutes week + thin liquidity can create outsized moves.
- Watch the rate-sensitive parts of Nasdaq: semis, high-multiple software, and the mega-cap complex can react quickly if yields move. [26]
- Treat early-week moves with caution: low volume can produce false breakouts. Consider limit orders over market orders. [27]
- Separate “AI narrative” from earnings math: 2026 optimism is largely an earnings-growth story—if expectations slip, Nasdaq usually feels it faster. [28]
- Remember the calendar: full session Dec. 31, closed Jan. 1. Position sizing should respect that gap risk. [29]
Bottom line for Nasdaq heading into Monday
The Nasdaq enters the final trading stretch of 2025 strong on the year, quiet in the latest session, and still dominated by the AI-and-mega-cap debate. The setup for the next open is less about “today’s” price—because today is a Saturday—and more about whether momentum survives thin liquidity and whether upcoming macro signals (especially Fed communication) keep rates aligned with growth-stock valuations. [30]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.cbsnews.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.newyorkfed.org, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.reuters.com
