NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 9:41 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with investors digesting a high-profile AI “inference” move involving Groq, fresh Wall Street target updates, and unusually heavy options activity that points to elevated near-term positioning.
With U.S. stock exchanges closed for the weekend, NVDA shares are coming off Friday’s regular-session close at $190.53, up 1.02% on the day. [1] A small after-hours dip was indicated late Friday, with $190.06 shown after the close on some quote services. [2]
Friday’s tape also reflected holiday-thinned liquidity: one market recap pegged Nvidia’s share volume at about 136.8 million, below its three-month average. [3]
The headline driver: Nvidia and Groq — a licensing-and-talent deal, not a full acquisition
The most market-moving Nvidia development being discussed into the weekend is a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq, paired with the hiring of key Groq leadership.
According to Groq’s own announcement, the deal includes a non-exclusive license for Groq’s inference technology, and Groq says its founder Jonathan Ross and president Sunny Madra, along with other team members, will join Nvidia to help scale the licensed technology. Groq also said it will continue to operate as an independent company, with Simon Edwards stepping into the CEO role. [4]
A Reuters report (republished by MarketScreener) added context that helps explain why this matters for NVDA holders: inference—running trained AI models in production—has become an increasingly competitive battleground versus AI training, where Nvidia has been dominant. Reuters also noted CNBC reported a possible $20 billion figure, while Groq did not disclose financial details, and neither Nvidia nor Groq commented on the reported price tag in that Reuters account. [5]
Investopedia’s Friday update similarly emphasized that Groq remains independent under the licensing structure and reported that Nvidia denied it had acquired Groq outright, even as market chatter centered on a potential asset purchase and executive moves. [6]
TechCrunch’s coverage reinforced the “not an acquisition of the company” framing, reporting that Nvidia told the outlet it is not acquiring Groq as a whole while not detailing the full scope of the arrangement. [7]
Why this matters for NVDA stock now: Investors are increasingly focused on whether Nvidia can extend its platform leadership as AI shifts from training-heavy spending into more cost-sensitive, latency-sensitive inference deployments. The Groq deal is being read as a strategic hedge: add complementary inference know-how and talent without the overhead (and potential regulatory friction) of a full corporate buyout. [8]
Analyst and “street” outlook: $254 consensus target cited, and a fresh $300 call for 2026
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on Nvidia into year-end, though valuation and “AI spending” debates are still shaping day-to-day volatility across megacap tech.
Investopedia reported that the mean price target tracked by Visible Alpha was $254 (well above the trading level referenced in that article), underscoring the still-bullish sell-side baseline. [9]
Meanwhile, a Cantor Fitzgerald note circulated Friday argued that recent weakness in AI-linked names may be overstated and set a $300 price target on Nvidia looking into 2026, citing durable data-center demand and product cadence as key pillars. [10]
One of the more pointed caution flags flagged in Reuters’ Groq-deal reporting came from Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who wrote that antitrust could be a primary risk—while also suggesting that structuring the arrangement as a non-exclusive license may help reduce scrutiny compared with a conventional acquisition. [11]
Options activity: traders crowded into near-term NVDA calls
Another notable “last 48 hours” data point: options trading in NVDA was unusually active on Friday.
A Nasdaq.com options recap said roughly 2.1 million NVDA options contracts traded during Friday’s session and highlighted particularly heavy volume in $192.50 strike call options expiring Dec. 26, 2025. [12]
Options flow doesn’t guarantee direction—but into year-end, it can amplify moves when liquidity is thin. If a large concentration of short-dated positioning is forced to unwind, it can steepen either a rally (through hedging dynamics) or a pullback.
Broader market backdrop: record highs, year-end positioning, and rate expectations in focus
Nvidia is still trading inside a market regime where macro factors—especially rates—can matter as much as single-stock headlines.
In its “Week Ahead” column dated Dec. 26, Reuters reported that U.S. equities were near record peaks and that the S&P 500 was about 1% away from the 7,000 level, with investors watching rotation and the durability of the rally. [13]
Reuters also quoted Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, saying momentum favored the bulls absent an “exogenous event.” [14]
And Reuters noted investors were focused on the path of rate cuts, pointing to upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes as a potential market catalyst; the story quoted Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, on the importance of “handicapping how many rate cuts” markets might see next year. [15]
For NVDA specifically, that macro mix can matter because high-growth megacaps often trade as a bundle when rates reprice—especially during holiday-thinned sessions when index flows dominate.
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed now, the most practical “edge” for NVDA investors is preparing a checklist for Monday’s open rather than reacting to weekend noise.
1) Know the next key windows
- The next U.S. regular session begins Monday, Dec. 29, 2025 at 9:30 a.m. ET (with premarket activity typically starting earlier at many brokers).
- With year-end approaching, liquidity can remain uneven, and headlines can have an outsized impact.
2) Watch for clarity on the Groq structure and execution
The biggest near-term question isn’t whether Nvidia “won” the week—it’s whether investors get additional clarity on:
- what exactly is included in the Groq technology license,
- the scope of executive and engineering transitions,
- and how Nvidia positions this move as inference demand accelerates. [16]
3) Treat the $20B figure as “reported,” not confirmed
Multiple credible write-ups attribute the ~$20 billion figure to reporting, but Groq’s announcement did not disclose financial terms. If the market re-prices on clarified terms, that can move the stock quickly in either direction. [17]
4) Keep an eye on options positioning after Friday’s expiry
With Nasdaq highlighting significant same-day call activity and very large contract volumes, it may be worth monitoring whether post-expiry positioning reduces volatility—or whether new positioning appears at nearby strikes early Monday. [18]
5) Don’t ignore the index/sector tape
Even when NVDA has a stock-specific catalyst, it often trades with the “AI complex” and semiconductors, especially around rebalancing and year-end allocation shifts. On Friday, broad market action was muted and semis were mixed—an environment where single headlines can stand out. [19]
Bottom line for NVDA heading into Monday
Nvidia stock enters the next session with bullish analyst framing still intact—highlighted by a fresh $300 target call for 2026—while the Groq licensing-and-talent move keeps the narrative focused on Nvidia’s strategy to stay ahead as AI workloads tilt toward inference. [20]
At the same time, year-end liquidity, heavy options activity, and macro rate expectations can still dictate near-term price action—meaning Monday’s first hour may be as much about positioning as it is about fundamentals. [21]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. groq.com, 5. au.marketscreener.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. techcrunch.com, 8. au.marketscreener.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. au.marketscreener.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. groq.com, 17. au.marketscreener.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com
