NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 9:50 a.m. ET — U.S. stock market closed (weekend)
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) heads into the final trading stretch of 2025 with its stock hovering just below the psychologically important $500 level, after a quiet, post-holiday session that left major indexes near record territory and investors searching for catalysts.
MSFT closed Friday at $487.71, and was slightly lower in extended trading later that evening at around $487.28, according to MarketBeat. [1]
With U.S. equities closed Saturday and Sunday, attention now shifts to what could drive Microsoft shares when trading resumes Monday, Dec. 29—including thin year-end liquidity, a packed macro calendar, and growing investor sensitivity to how quickly Big Tech can translate AI spending into durable earnings growth. [2]
Microsoft stock price action: quiet close, heavy options tape
Friday’s move in Microsoft was subdued—consistent with a broader market that ended a light-volume post-Christmas session almost unchanged, snapping a short winning streak but keeping the major averages on track for strong annual gains. [3]
In Microsoft-specific positioning, the derivatives market drew more attention than the underlying shares. Nasdaq data flagged notable options activity in MSFT on Friday, with 102,649 contracts traded—representing exposure to roughly 10.3 million shares. The most concentrated activity cited was at the $490 strike call expiring Dec. 26, with 12,038 contracts changing hands. [4]
While options flow doesn’t guarantee direction, the concentration near the $490 level highlights how traders are clustering around a near-term pivot: whether MSFT can reclaim and hold above $490 as the market attempts to extend the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” period into early January. [5]
The market backdrop: “Santa Claus rally” watch, with year-end liquidity risks
The broader tone matters for Microsoft because mega-cap tech remains a key driver of index performance—and year-end trading dynamics can amplify moves.
In Friday’s session recap, Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the market as “catching our breath” after a strong run, adding that the Santa Claus rally window still had time left for “a little more upward bias.” [6]
A separate Reuters “Week Ahead” outlook emphasized that investors are watching for an upbeat finish to the year with the S&P 500 nearing the 7,000 milestone, but also warned that year-end portfolio adjustments can introduce volatility—especially when light volumes exaggerate price moves. [7]
That combination—bullish momentum with potentially fragile liquidity—is particularly relevant for MSFT, a stock that often trades as both a company story (Azure, Copilot, AI monetization) and a macro proxy (rates, risk appetite, index exposure).
Forecasts and analyst outlook: Wall Street remains broadly constructive on MSFT
Even after a choppy stretch for some AI-linked names earlier in the quarter, analyst sentiment on Microsoft remains heavily tilted positive.
MarketBeat’s aggregated analyst data shows:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (based on 43 analyst ratings)
- Consensus 12-month price target:$631.03, implying roughly 29% upside from the recent share price
- Price target range:$490 on the low end to $730 on the high end [8]
On the more tactical “where could it be in a year?” side, 24/7 Wall St. published a year-end forecast assigning Microsoft a $563.64 target, framing it as a more cautious upside case that balances Azure strength against heavy AI infrastructure spending and other risks. [9]
And while it falls outside the strict 48-hour window, one of the most-circulated analyst takes heading into year-end came from Wedbush, led by Dan Ives, arguing Microsoft remains undervalued relative to its AI positioning; Investopedia summarized the thesis and cited a $625 price target and an “outperform” stance. [10]
Taken together, the common thread across the forecasts is less about whether Microsoft participates in AI—and more about how efficiently it monetizes AI (Copilot adoption, Azure AI workloads, and pricing power) while managing the near-term drag of capital expenditures.
What investors should watch before Monday’s open
Because the market is closed today, the next actionable window is Monday’s regular session—preceded by premarket trading and weekend macro/news digestion.
Here are the most immediate drivers that could matter for Microsoft stock before the next session:
1) Economic data that can move rates—and rate-sensitive megacap tech
High-multiple tech stocks like Microsoft can react sharply to changes in Treasury yields and rate expectations. On Monday, Dec. 29, the New York Fed’s calendar flags several releases, including:
- Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m. ET)
- NAR Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m. ET)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 a.m. ET) [11]
2) Fed minutes and the “rates path” narrative
Reuters’ week-ahead report highlighted that minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting are due Tuesday, and could be scrutinized for how policymakers are thinking about the next phase of cuts after late-2025 moves. Reuters also quoted Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, saying the minutes may be “illuminating” in terms of arguments around the table. [12]
3) Year-end trading calendar quirks
With the market entering the final days of the year, investors also weigh liquidity and holiday schedules. Investopedia reported that stocks trade a full day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31), while U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026. [13]
For reference, the NYSE’s posted core trading hours remain 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with holiday exceptions as scheduled. [14]
Nasdaq Trader’s 2025 calendar also documented the recent holiday adjustments (including the Dec. 24 early close and Dec. 25 closure) that helped set the stage for this week’s thinner trading conditions. [15]
Microsoft-specific catalysts on the horizon: earnings timing and shareholder returns
Even in a quiet news window, Microsoft investors typically keep one eye on two predictable catalysts: the next earnings report and capital return events.
Next earnings: estimated windows vary by calendar (not yet confirmed)
MarketBeat lists Microsoft’s next earnings date as estimated for Feb. 4, 2026 (after market close), noting the company has not confirmed the date and that it is based on past schedules. [16]
A Yahoo Finance earnings calendar entry, meanwhile, has shown an after-hours earnings time on Jan. 28, 2026 (4 p.m. EST) for MSFT. [17]
Investors should treat these as placeholders until Microsoft formally confirms the reporting date, but the late-January/early-February window is now a focal point for positioning.
Dividend timeline: next payout details already set
Microsoft also announced earlier this month that its board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share, payable March 12, 2026, to shareholders of record on Feb. 19, 2026 (with the ex-dividend date also listed as Feb. 19). [18]
Bottom line for MSFT going into the next session
With the market closed for the weekend, the most important near-term takeaway for Microsoft stock is that price action is being shaped as much by macro and positioning as by fresh company headlines—a dynamic common in late-December trading.
When markets reopen Monday, investors will be watching:
- Whether MSFT can hold the high-$480s and challenge $490–$500 amid thin liquidity
- Whether year-end flows support an extension of the seasonal Santa Claus rally period into early January [19]
- How upcoming data and Fed minutes shift rates expectations, which can quickly rerate megacap tech [20]
- Whether the heavy options activity seen Friday proves to be a tell for short-term sentiment [21]
Microsoft enters that setup with a still-strong analyst backdrop—MarketBeat’s consensus price target implies meaningful upside over the next year—but with investors continuing to debate the timing of AI payoffs versus the near-term cost of building them. [22]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. 247wallst.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.newyorkfed.org, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.nyse.com, 15. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. news.microsoft.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com
