NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 11:59 a.m. ET — Market Closed (Weekend)
Wall Street is closed this Saturday, giving investors a pause to digest a quiet post-Christmas session that left the major U.S. indexes essentially unchanged on Friday—but still near record territory heading into the final trading days of 2025.
The takeaway from the last 48 hours is straightforward: stocks are consolidating at elevated levels after a strong holiday-week run, while market attention shifts to year-end flows, the Federal Reserve’s next signal on rate cuts, and whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” can extend into early January. [1]
Friday’s close: Small dip, big-picture strength
In light, post-holiday trading on Friday, Dec. 26, the major averages finished down by less than 0.1%:
- S&P 500: 6,929.94 (down 2.11 points)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,710.97 (down 20.19 points)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,593.10 (down 20.21 points)
- Russell 2000: 2,534.35 (down 13.74 points) [2]
Despite the flat finish, the week was solidly positive:
- S&P 500: +1.4%
- Dow: +1.2%
- Nasdaq: +1.2%
- Russell 2000: +0.2% [3]
And with just a handful of sessions left in 2025, the year-to-date picture remains strong, with the S&P 500 up about 17.8%, the Dow about 14.5%, the Nasdaq about 22.2%, and small caps (Russell 2000) about 13.6%. [4]
Why the market stalled: “Catching our breath” in thin holiday volume
Friday’s action looked less like a reversal and more like a pause. Reuters described the session as light on catalysts, with all three major indexes “nominally” lower. [5]
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, characterized the day as a reset after a strong run into the holiday, while emphasizing that the seasonal window still has time to play out. [6]
That “thin tape” theme also showed up in broker commentary. Charles Schwab’s Joe Mazzola warned that low volume can exaggerate price moves, urging extra caution for active traders during the holiday lull. [7]
The next big psychological level: S&P 500 and the 7,000 milestone
Even with Friday’s minor decline, the S&P 500 remains close to a major round-number target.
Reuters reported that the S&P 500, after logging a record close earlier in the holiday week, was about 1% away from 7,000 and on track for what would be its eighth consecutive month of gains—its longest monthly winning streak since 2017–2018. [8]
Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, summed up the mood in one line: “Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls,” while cautioning that unexpected shocks can still change the tone quickly. [9]
Fed policy is back in focus: Minutes, cuts, and the 2026 rate path
With economic data relatively sparse during the holiday stretch, rate expectations are reasserting themselves as a key driver—both for equity valuations and for leadership inside the market.
A central event arrives next week: the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the Dec. 9–10 meeting are scheduled for release on Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET, according to the Fed’s official calendar. [10]
Reuters noted that the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, bringing the policy range to 3.50%–3.75%, but that policymakers’ projections for the coming year show meaningful disagreement. [11]
Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, told Reuters the minutes may be useful for understanding how the debate inside the Fed is evolving—especially as markets try to “handicap” how many cuts may arrive next year. [12]
Across global markets, Reuters also reported that traders are generally pricing at least two rate cuts in 2026, though expectations point to no move before June. [13]
Market leadership is rotating: Not just Big Tech anymore
One of the most important year-end narratives is breadth—and whether gains are broadening beyond the mega-cap technology names that dominated much of 2025.
Reuters highlighted that the tech sector, despite rebounding lately, has been under pressure since early November, while other areas—financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps—have shown relative strength. [14]
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, told Reuters the shifting performance suggests rotation toward areas with more moderate valuations, alongside growing confidence that the economy remains on solid footing. [15]
Friday’s sector scoreboard underscored that theme: Reuters reported materials led on the day while consumer discretionary lagged. [16]
Movers investors watched heading into the weekend
Even in a muted session, several single-stock stories drew attention:
- Nvidia rose after news tied to a licensing arrangement involving AI chip start-up Groq and management developments Reuters said included hiring Groq’s CEO. [17]
- Target climbed after a report of activist interest, with Reuters citing Financial Times reporting tied to Toms Capital Investment Management. [18]
- Precious-metal miners gained as gold and silver prices pushed to fresh records, lifting sentiment in parts of the materials complex. [19]
Cross-asset signals: Record metals, steady yields, softer oil
While U.S. stocks were mostly flat Friday, other asset classes were more animated.
Reuters reported silver hit an all-time high around $77.4/oz and gold reached a record near $4,549/oz, supported by a mix of rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. [20]
In rates, Investopedia noted the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly unchanged around the mid-4% area late Friday. [21]
Oil, meanwhile, softened into the weekend: Reuters said crude settled down more than 2% on supply/demand considerations and other macro headlines. [22]
If you’re planning for the next session: What to know before Monday’s open
Because U.S. markets are closed today, the practical question becomes how to position your watchlist for the next tradable window—and what events could move prices in thin year-end liquidity.
1) Index futures reopen Sunday evening.
CME equity index products generally resume trading on Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET, which is when the first “tone-setting” price discovery often begins for Monday’s cash open. [23]
2) Expect liquidity to remain thin into year-end.
Multiple market commentaries have warned that holiday conditions can reduce conviction and amplify swings. Even headlines that would be routine in mid-January can feel bigger when volume is scarce. [24]
3) The “Santa Claus rally” window is still in play.
Reuters noted that investors are watching for the traditional Santa rally pattern—an advance over the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January—with some viewing it as a sentiment barometer for the new year. [25]
4) Tuesday’s Fed minutes are the marquee macro catalyst.
The Fed’s official calendar lists the Dec. 30, 2:00 p.m. ET release for the minutes from the Dec. 9–10 meeting. Any surprise emphasis on inflation risks, growth concerns, or internal dissent could ripple across yields and equity multiples. [26]
5) New Year’s trading schedule matters for timing and volatility.
- Stocks: A normal session is expected on New Year’s Eve (Wed., Dec. 31), with markets closed on New Year’s Day (Thu., Jan. 1, 2026). [27]
- Bonds: SIFMA’s holiday recommendations call for an early close at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wed., Dec. 31, 2025, and a full close on Jan. 1. [28]
The bottom line for the weekend
As of Saturday midday in New York, the U.S. stock market is closed—but the market narrative is active: indexes are hovering near record levels, the S&P 500 is within striking distance of 7,000, and investors are weighing whether the late-year rally can broaden beyond mega-cap tech as the Fed’s next signal approaches. [29]
The next 72 hours could set the tone for the final sprint of 2025: Sunday futures trading will offer the first hint of risk appetite, Tuesday’s Fed minutes will test rate-cut assumptions, and year-end positioning could amplify moves—up or down—into the final bell of the year. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.schwab.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.federalreserve.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.interactivebrokers.com, 24. www.schwab.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.federalreserve.gov, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.sifma.org, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.federalreserve.gov
