NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:10 p.m. ET — Market closed (Weekend)
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) heads into the final week of 2025 with investors digesting a notable Friday selloff, a burst of new quantum-sector commentary, and a still-wide spread of Wall Street price targets that underscores just how polarized the outlook remains for “pure-play” quantum computing names.
Shares of Rigetti finished the regular session Friday (Dec. 26) at $22.38, down about 8.7%, after trading as low as roughly $22.33 and as high as about $24.51. Trading volume was about 28 million shares, well below the stock’s recent average activity—an important detail at year-end, when liquidity can thin and price swings can become more abrupt. [1]
In after-hours, RGTI was quoted around $22.46 late Friday evening, a modest uptick from the close, according to MarketWatch’s delayed quote snapshot. [2]
What’s happening with RGTI stock right now
Because it’s Saturday, there’s no active U.S. equity session and no Nasdaq trading in the normal sense of price discovery. The next key checkpoint for Rigetti investors is Monday’s reopening, when U.S. stocks resume regular trading at 9:30 a.m. ET—and when weekend news, analyst chatter, and sector sentiment get repriced all at once.
The calendar matters this week. U.S. stock markets are expected to be open for a full trading day on Wednesday, Dec. 31, while markets will be closed on Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. [3]
The last 48 hours of Rigetti headlines and market chatter
Rigetti didn’t announce a company press release in the last two days that dominated the tape; instead, the flow has been price-action-focused coverage and opinion-driven analysis—common for volatile, narrative-heavy stocks.
Here are the most visible items from roughly the past 24–48 hours:
- Friday’s drop, framed as a volatility reset: MarketBeat highlighted the 8.7% decline and the day’s low/high range, while also pointing to how far the stock can move even on below-average volume. [4]
- Institutional-holdings story: Another MarketBeat item (dated Dec. 27) focused on a Form 13F-related update, stating Osaic Holdings increased its stake and summarizing the firm’s share count and estimated value at quarter-end. [5]
- A split-screen set of bull vs. bear takes on 2026: Two Nasdaq.com pieces syndicated from The Motley Fool landed close together—one arguing Rigetti could double again in 2026, and another warning the stock could plunge in 2026 due to valuation and fundamentals. [6]
- Social-media temperature check: Quiver Quantitative published an AI-condensed “discussion tracker” summary noting mixed sentiment, with bulls pointing to upgrades and “quantum momentum,” and skeptics emphasizing fundamentals and valuation concerns. [7]
- “Big money managers” angle: A Dec. 26 Motley Fool piece pointed to prior SEC filings and said large institutions (including well-known asset managers and hedge funds) have owned or added shares during 2025—while also emphasizing the company’s losses and risk profile. [8]
Analyst forecasts: price targets are wide, and coverage is still evolving
Rigetti’s 2025 run—paired with sharp drawdowns—has encouraged more Wall Street desks to publish coverage on quantum “pure plays.” The result: targets that span from the low-$30s to $50, depending on firm and framework.
Recent and notable analyst calls include:
- Wedbush (Antoine Legault): Outperform, $35 price target (coverage initiation reported Dec. 17). [9]
- Jefferies (Kevin Garrigan): Hold, $30 price target (coverage initiation reported Dec. 16). [10]
- Mizuho (Vijay Rakesh): $50 price target (quantum coverage framing reported Dec. 11). [11]
- Benchmark (David Williams): Buy rating, $40 price objective (reported in late November coverage referencing the Nov. 12 note). [12]
On aggregate, MarketBeat lists Rigetti with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target around $31.22 (its tracker also notes a mix of Buy/Hold/Sell labels across covering analysts). [13]
Why the spread matters: when price targets cluster tightly, a stock can trade like a debate about execution. When targets are far apart—as they are for RGTI—the stock often trades like a debate about the entire premise (timeline to commercialization, the size of the market, and how to value pre-profit hardware platforms).
Fundamentals check: big ambition, early revenue, ongoing losses
Even bullish analysts generally acknowledge a key tension: Rigetti is a high-profile quantum hardware developer, but it remains early in the revenue curve.
MarketBeat’s recap of the latest reported quarter noted Rigetti posted an EPS loss of $0.03 (beating expectations cited there) and revenue of $1.95 million (missing expectations cited there), with revenue down year over year in that summary. [14]
Meanwhile, one of the more bearish recent opinion pieces on Nasdaq.com emphasized minimal revenue relative to market capitalization and argued the stock’s valuation could be vulnerable in 2026 if commercialization doesn’t accelerate. [15]
In contrast, a more optimistic Nasdaq.com piece pointed to progress narratives (including chip architecture and execution improvements) as a reason the stock could still have meaningful upside—while still framing the space as competitive and the path as execution-dependent. [16]
Positioning risk: short interest is elevated enough to matter
Another reason Rigetti can gap sharply—especially around sector news—is positioning.
As of Dec. 15, 2025, MarketBeat reports Rigetti had about 41.25 million shares sold short, roughly 12.5% of float, with a days-to-cover ratio around 1.1. [17]
That combination doesn’t guarantee a squeeze, but it does mean that fast upside moves can force mechanical buying (short covering), and fast downside moves can snowball if liquidity thins and stop-loss selling accelerates—both of which are more common around holidays.
What investors should watch before the next session
With the market closed, the practical question becomes: what inputs are most likely to move RGTI when trading reopens Monday?
1) The “quantum basket” trade
Rigetti often moves with other quantum pure plays when the market is treating the group as a theme. Sector narratives have been active into year-end as large firms initiate coverage and investors debate timelines to real commercial workloads. [18]
2) Follow-through (or fade) after Friday’s break
Friday’s session established a clear near-term reference range: roughly $24.5 on the upside and $22.3 on the downside. If RGTI opens Monday and quickly reclaims the mid-$24s, traders may view Friday as a shakeout. If it loses the low-$22s early, the market may be signaling that risk appetite is slipping for the theme. [19]
3) Analyst commentary and “target anchoring”
In the short run, newly published targets can act like magnets in retail-heavy names—especially when they’re repeated across aggregators. This matters for Rigetti right now because fresh initiations (Wedbush, Jefferies, Mizuho) are still being digested by the market. [20]
4) Liquidity and the year-end tape
The last week of December can bring thin order books, portfolio rebalancing, and tax-related flows. Even when the broader market is calm, speculative, high-beta stocks can swing sharply.
5) The next known company catalyst
Multiple market calendars list Rigetti’s next earnings window in early March. Zacks, for example, lists an expected earnings date of March 4, 2026 (expectations can change; companies sometimes confirm later). [21]
6) Holiday schedule awareness
With New Year’s approaching, traders may also keep an eye on when markets are open and closed, since extended breaks can amplify “gap risk.” Stocks are expected to trade normally on Dec. 31, and markets are expected to be closed Jan. 1. [22]
Bottom line
Rigetti (RGTI) enters Monday’s session setup with three forces pulling on the stock at once:
- Sharp near-term volatility (Friday’s steep decline and a wide intraday range), [23]
- An active analyst-coverage cycle with materially different price targets and rating stances, [24]
- Positioning dynamics (notably, meaningful short interest), which can amplify both rallies and selloffs. [25]
For investors, the key is recognizing that RGTI is trading less like a mature earnings compounder and more like a high-beta thesis on whether quantum computing crosses from research-heavy progress into scalable commercial utility on a timeline that justifies today’s valuations. That’s why, even within the past 48 hours, widely read market commentary has landed on both extremes—“could double again” versus “could plunge”—depending on how the author weighs execution risk versus technological upside. [26]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.quiverquant.com, 8. www.fool.com, 9. www.sahmcapital.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.morningstar.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.sahmcapital.com, 21. www.zacks.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.sahmcapital.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com
