NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 7:52 p.m. ET — Market closed
TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is heading into the final week of the year with momentum suddenly cooling after a sharp Friday pullback. Shares of the deep-sea mining and critical minerals developer finished the Dec. 26 session at $6.82, down 10.5%, after trading between $6.61 and $7.68. The stock later ticked up to around $6.90 in after-hours trading, but U.S. markets are now closed for the weekend—leaving investors to reassess what drove the move and what matters most before Monday’s reopening. [1]
The slide comes during a year-end, post-holiday stretch when liquidity can thin out and volatility can spike—especially in smaller, headline-sensitive names. On Friday, U.S. stocks ended slightly lower in generally quiet trading, keeping the broader market’s focus on positioning into year-end rather than major new catalysts. [2]
For TMC, however, “quiet” is rarely the right word. The stock has been swinging sharply for weeks—up 4.24% on Dec. 24, down 5.19% on Dec. 23, and up 14.02% on Dec. 19, before Friday’s reversal. [3]
What’s driving TMC stock right now
In the last 24–48 hours, the most concrete “news” for shareholders has been price action itself—a large Friday decline followed by weekend digestion—rather than a fresh earnings update or corporate press release.
TMC’s investor-relations site lists its most recent press releases as Nov. 13, 2025 (Q3 corporate update) and Nov. 6, 2025 (conference-call announcement), underscoring that the latest move is not obviously tied to a brand-new company statement. [4]
Market commentary over the weekend pointed to holiday-thin trading as a potential amplifier of the selloff in a stock that already attracts event-driven positioning. [5]
Still, TMC is not trading in a vacuum. The company sits at the intersection of three themes that can quickly reprice sentiment:
- U.S. permitting and policy for deep-sea mining
- commodity-price narratives around “critical minerals”
- technical and positioning dynamics (short interest, options activity, year-end portfolio moves)
The next major catalyst: NOAA’s public comment window and hearings
A key catalyst investors are watching is the U.S. regulatory pathway under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA).
A Federal Register notice dated Dec. 23, 2025 states that NOAA received amended applications from The Metals Company USA, LLC (TMC USA)—TMC’s subsidiary—for deep seabed mining exploration licenses in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, and that NOAA determined those applications are “fully compliant” with DSHMRA information requirements. The notice also sets a public comment deadline of Feb. 23, 2026, and schedules virtual public hearings on Jan. 27 and Jan. 28, 2026 (3 p.m. to 7 p.m. ET each day), with registration required by Jan. 21, 2026. [6]
Why it matters for TMC stock: even though these milestones do not guarantee approvals, they create a calendar of potentially market-moving dates—a setup that can attract both momentum traders and short-term hedging activity, particularly when liquidity is thin.
Friday’s selloff in context: a volatile name in a thin tape
Friday’s decline also stands out because it came as broader markets were relatively subdued. In that kind of tape, outsized moves in individual small- and mid-cap stocks can be magnified by positioning, stop orders, and reduced depth in the order book. [7]
TMC’s daily trading stats show just how quickly sentiment can flip. On Dec. 26 alone, the stock moved more than a dollar from high to low before closing near the bottom of its range. [8]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: upside targets, but wide disagreement
Analyst forecasts for TMC remain directionally optimistic, but the dispersion is notable—reflecting the reality that this is still a permitting- and execution-driven story, not a mature producer with predictable cash flows.
- MarketBeat shows a consensus “Hold” rating and an average 12‑month price target of $7.42 (about 8.75% above its referenced price). [9]
- TipRanks lists a “Strong Buy” consensus based on three analysts, with an average price target of $8.33, and a wide forecast range from $6.50 to $11.00. [10]
One reason targets can look inconsistent across platforms is timing and methodology: some services refresh “last price” at different moments, and the number of covering analysts is small—so any single update can shift the averages.
A separate high-profile bullish datapoint still cited by investors: Wedbush analyst Dan Ives previously initiated/raised optimism on the name, tying potential upside to U.S. policy support for seabed minerals (and setting a target cited by Barron’s). [11]
Positioning check: short interest remains meaningful
Short interest is another reason TMC can move violently in either direction.
As of Dec. 15, 2025, MarketBeat estimates TMC had 28.27 million shares sold short, representing 9.44% of the public float, with a 2.9-day “days to cover” ratio. [12]
That’s not “meme-stock extreme,” but it is enough to matter in a stock that can move double digits in a day—particularly if a regulatory headline, policy development, or commodity narrative triggers fast buying while shorts scramble to reduce exposure.
Technical picture: indicators lean bearish, but oversold signals are flashing
For traders focused on technical setups heading into Monday, Investing.com’s technical dashboard (timestamped Dec. 27) shows a “Strong Sell” summary across indicators, while also flagging oversold-style readings in some oscillators (for example, STOCH and Williams %R). [13]
This mix—bearish trend signals alongside oversold momentum gauges—often describes a market at an inflection point: it can bounce sharply on incremental good news, or continue lower if sellers remain in control and liquidity stays thin.
Macro backdrop: metals are hot, but TMC is a policy story first
The broader metals complex has been supportive lately. Copper, in particular, surged to fresh records on Friday, lifting miners and feeding the “critical minerals” narrative that underpins parts of the TMC bull case. Barron’s reported copper hitting records in Shanghai and on Comex, citing tight supplies and demand tied to AI infrastructure, while also noting caution from Capital Economics economist David Oxley, who warned that weaker China demand in 2026 could turn the cycle. [14]
For TMC investors, the takeaway is nuanced:
- Higher metal prices can improve long-term economics for future supply.
- But in the near term, regulatory clarity and permitting progress likely matter more to TMC’s valuation than day-to-day commodity ticks.
What the company last told investors about timeline and liquidity
TMC’s most recent quarterly corporate update (Nov. 13, 2025) emphasized operational and financial milestones while reiterating the permitting dependency.
Among the key points highlighted in that update:
- Cash of about $115.6 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. [15]
- Management said it had $121 million of cash after quarter-end warrant exercises and total liquidity of $165 million including undrawn credit facilities, and that it didn’t expect to need to return to public markets “anytime soon” (as described in the CEO’s prepared remarks). [16]
- The company referenced technical economic assessments with a combined stated project value of $23.6 billion, and a Pre‑Feasibility Study NPV of $5.5 billion, alongside a declaration of 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves for its NORI‑D area. [17]
- TMC said it expects to start commercial production in Q4 2027 if it receives a commercial recovery permit. [18]
Those details help frame why TMC can trade like a “binary” stock: the timeline stretches years, and key gates are regulatory.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
With the market closed right now, here are the items most likely to shape TMC stock when trading resumes:
1) Watch the opening tone for high-volatility names.
The last trading day (Friday) produced a sharp drop on heavy swings. If broader markets open risk-on Monday, TMC could rebound quickly; if markets open defensive, high-beta stories can see continued pressure. [19]
2) Keep an eye on the regulatory calendar—and headline risk.
The NOAA process is now structured and visible to the public, with firm dates for comments and hearings. Any coverage that signals shifting political support, louder opposition, or new procedural steps can move the stock disproportionately. [20]
3) Expect volatility around positioning (short interest + thin year-end liquidity).
With short interest around 9% of float and the stock’s history of sharp moves, Monday’s action could be exaggerated by fast money repositioning and short-term hedging. [21]
4) Don’t ignore commodity narratives—but keep them in perspective.
Record copper prices can lift sentiment around future supply plays, yet TMC’s near-term catalysts remain regulatory and financing related. [22]
The bottom line
TMC the metals company stock enters Monday’s session after a steep, late-week drop that looks consistent with a volatile, catalyst-driven name trading in a thin holiday tape. The bigger storyline investors are likely to return to is the evolving U.S. regulatory process around deep seabed mining—now on a clearly defined public timetable—while Wall Street price targets still imply upside but vary widely due to limited coverage and high uncertainty.
For investors, the next session may be less about what happened over the weekend—markets were closed—and more about whether Friday’s selloff becomes a reset that stabilizes into year-end, or the start of another leg in TMC’s ongoing volatility cycle. [23]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. investors.metals.co, 5. talkmarkets.com, 6. www.federalregister.gov, 7. apnews.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. au.investing.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. investors.metals.co, 16. investors.metals.co, 17. investors.metals.co, 18. investors.metals.co, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.federalregister.gov, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. stockanalysis.com
