NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:08 a.m. ET — Market Closed
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (Nasdaq: CRDO) heads into the final full week of the year with investors parsing a sharp one-day drop that arrived in the kind of thin, post-holiday tape where small catalysts can feel louder than they are. U.S. markets are closed this weekend, so the next key checkpoint for CRDO stock will be Monday’s regular session, when liquidity returns and traders decide whether Friday’s move was a pause—or the start of something more serious. 1
CRDO stock recap: Friday’s decline in a quiet market
CRDO last traded at $144.83, down $5.49 (-3.65%). The session range ran from about $144.42 to $152.43 on volume near 2.73 million shares, and the last reported trade time reflects activity after Friday’s closing bell.
The broader market backdrop mattered. Friday’s post-Christmas session was described by Reuters as light-volume and nearly unchanged, with major indexes holding close to record territory—conditions that can amplify profit-taking in high-beta, high-momentum names like CRDO. 2
An Associated Press market recap (via Yahoo Finance) showed the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 0.1% on Friday, underscoring that CRDO’s move was notably larger than the index-level drift. 3
What changed in the last 24–48 hours: filings and “why is it down?”
Over the past 24–48 hours, the most concrete CRDO-specific updates weren’t new product announcements or a fresh earnings release—they were institutional holding updates tied to Form 13F filings.
Two MarketBeat items published Saturday highlighted:
- Carnegie Investment Counsel cutting its stake by 33.7% in Q3, selling 129,024 shares and reporting 253,467 shares held at quarter-end. 4
- Harbor Capital Advisors reducing its position by 73.9% in Q3, selling 26,203 shares and reporting 9,251 shares held at quarter-end. 5
Important nuance for investors: 13F filings are backward-looking snapshots (positions as of the quarter’s end), not real-time evidence that these firms sold on Friday. Still, in the current market mood, headlines that mention “selling” can influence sentiment—especially for a stock that has already had an outsized run in 2025 and trades with a high volatility profile. 4
A separate MarketBeat alert published Friday framed the session as a straightforward price-and-volume story: shares fell roughly 3.6%, with trading volume running below typical levels, and the piece pointed to the stock’s elevated valuation and high expectations embedded in the price. 6
Why CRDO is an “AI infrastructure” stock (and why that matters for Monday)
Credo’s relevance isn’t based on consumer gadgets or a single headline catalyst. It’s tied to a structural theme: AI data centers need extreme bandwidth, and moving those bits efficiently is a business. On its corporate site, Credo positions its mission around high-speed connectivity optimized for performance, reliability, energy efficiency, and security, supporting very high data rates across multiple protocols. 7
That narrative gained fuel on Dec. 1, when Credo reported what it called the strongest quarter in its history. For fiscal Q2 2026 (ended Nov. 1), the company reported:
- Revenue of $268.0 million, up 20.2% sequentially and 272.1% year over year
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.67
- Non-GAAP gross margin of 67.7%
- Cash and short-term investments of $813.6 million 8
Management also provided a forward marker: for fiscal Q3 2026, Credo guided for revenue between $335.0 million and $345.0 million, with gross margin expectations also laid out. CEO Bill Brennan tied the results to the “continued build-out” of large AI training and inference clusters and pointed to upcoming ramps in multiple product lines. 8
That combination—explosive growth plus strong margins—is exactly the kind of profile that can produce two very different trading behaviors:
- “Buy the story” momentum, when the market wants growth at almost any price, and
- violent air pockets, when liquidity thins or investors rotate away from high-multiple names.
Friday looked more like the second behavior. Monday will test whether buyers step back in when markets reopen.
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street price targets: bullish, but not uniform
Across major tracking services, the Street’s directional stance remains broadly constructive, but the price target math varies by source and analyst set.
- MarketBeat shows an average 12-month price target of $206.85, with targets ranging from $84 to $250 (as of its latest update). 9
- TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $219.44, with a range of $165 to $250 based on its tracked set of analysts over the past three months. 10
If you’re doing the mental model correctly, this spread tells you something non-boring: CRDO is a consensus-growth name, but the dispersion signals real disagreement about how durable—or cyclical—today’s AI connectivity demand will be. High target dispersion is common when a company is scaling fast, the product cycle is moving, and the market is still debating what “normalized” margins and growth should look like in a few years.
One notable recent update came from Bank of America. In a Dec. 16 note carried by TheFly (via TipRanks), BofA analyst Vivek Arya lowered the firm’s price target on Credo to $200 from $240 while keeping a Buy rating, describing 2026 as part of a longer multi-year infrastructure upgrade cycle for AI workloads and warning that AI-linked stocks can remain choppy amid scrutiny of returns and hyperscaler cash flows. 11
The setup into Monday: what investors should watch before the opening bell
Because markets are closed now, the practical question is: what information is likely to matter when premarket trading begins and the regular session opens?
1) Whether Friday’s drop attracts real dip-buying—or just algorithmic noise
CRDO is the kind of stock where price moves can look “technical,” but are often just a tug-of-war between fast money and longer-term believers in AI infrastructure. MarketBeat’s data points put the 50-day moving average around the mid-$150s and the 200-day around the low-$130s, which are levels many institutions watch even if they’ll never admit it at a dinner party. 4
If CRDO opens Monday and holds above key recent support areas while volume normalizes, bulls will read Friday as digestion. If it breaks down early on heavy volume, the market may be repricing near-term expectations.
2) Any fresh company-specific catalysts (or lack thereof)
In the last 48 hours, the news flow has been more about filings and market action than new fundamentals. If Monday brings no incremental catalysts, CRDO could trade more like a sentiment proxy for “AI capex confidence” than a company with its own headline driver.
3) Valuation sensitivity and “expectations risk”
Credo’s recent results and guidance were strong—but they also raise the bar. When a company prints triple-digit year-over-year growth and guides sharply higher, the stock can become vulnerable to:
- minor macro wobbles,
- rotation out of high-multiple tech, or
- any hint that hyperscaler ordering is normalizing.
That’s why even seemingly mundane stories—like backward-looking 13F stake reductions—can temporarily hit sentiment. 4
4) Calendar watch: next earnings window
Credo has not confirmed its next earnings date, but MarketBeat’s estimate points to early March 2026 based on historical timing. That matters because “time to next earnings” affects how aggressively traders are willing to position after a big move—especially if the stock is trading as a high-expectations growth story. 12
Bottom line
As of this weekend, there’s no new earnings shock or major product bombshell in the last 24–48 hours. The freshest items are (1) Friday’s pullback, and (2) institutional-position headlines tied to Q3 13F filings. Meanwhile, the bigger narrative remains intact: Credo is leveraged to the relentless need for bandwidth and efficiency in AI-driven data infrastructure, and its last reported quarter plus forward revenue outlook were exceptionally strong. 8
When markets reopen Monday, the key question is simple and very market-real: does liquidity bring buyers back, or does Friday’s move become the first step in a deeper de-risking? Given the stock’s volatility profile and the Street’s still-bullish—but widely dispersed—target landscape, investors should expect the answer to arrive as price and volume, not as a single headline. 9
