NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:13 a.m. ET — Market closed
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is heading into the weekend with traders still digesting a sharp holiday-week pullback that capped a volatile stretch for quantum computing stocks. QBTS last closed at $25.29 on Friday, down 8.10% on the session, and was recently quoted around $25.18 in the final after-hours print—meaning the next major test for sentiment arrives when U.S. markets reopen Monday morning.
The immediate question for investors is whether Friday’s selloff was a reset after an overheated rally—or an early warning that the “quantum premium” is getting too far ahead of what the business can deliver near-term. Fresh weekend commentary has split along classic speculative-growth fault lines: optimistic takes highlight D-Wave’s commercial traction and unusually large cash balance for a small-cap peer, while skeptical notes focus on valuation and the stock’s history of deep drawdowns. The Motley Fool+1
What just happened: a big spike, then a four-session fade
QBTS’ tape in the final full week of the year looked like a physics experiment where the lab tech “accidentally” nudges the volatility dial to maximum.
- On Monday, Dec. 22, QBTS closed at $32.19, up 20.02%, on very heavy volume.
- Then came a three-session slide: Dec. 23 (-9.54%), Dec. 24 (-5.49%), and Dec. 26 (-8.10%), leaving the stock down meaningfully from that Monday pop.
Friday’s session alone traded through a wide range—roughly $24.77 to $27.50—with more than 33 million shares changing hands, underscoring how crowded (and twitchy) the trade remains.
MarketBeat’s recap of Friday’s action framed the move as a notable downdraft even by QBTS standards, pointing out the stock was down about 8% on the day and summarizing the current Wall Street stance as broadly constructive, albeit with heightened attention on insider selling and the company’s still-unprofitable profile.
The weekend headlines: “next 10-bagger?” vs. “could it drop to $18?”
Two widely circulated takes in the last 24–48 hours capture the tug-of-war around QBTS:
Bull case (with caveats): In a late-Saturday piece, Motley Fool contributor Manali Pradhan, CFA argued D-Wave stands out for commercializing quantum annealing and running production-style optimization workloads, highlighting the Advantage2 platform, “more than 100 revenue-generating customers,” and D-Wave’s cash position as strategic fuel. At the same time, the article explicitly downplayed true “10-bagger” odds from here, noting that the stock is priced at an extremely rich multiple of sales and that a broad-based, fault-tolerant, gate-model quantum system would likely be needed to justify a step-change in adoption. The Motley Fool
Bear case (price target warning): Trefis published a downside-focused note arguing the stock’s recent drop could extend, suggesting $18 “is not out of question” and pointing to QBTS’ history of steep corrections as a reason to stay cautious about “buying the dip” too early. Trefis
Meanwhile, a separate Motley Fool item by Rick Orford (published earlier Saturday) leaned into the “is it too late?” framing and tied recent enthusiasm to themes like growing government interest and Advantage2’s rollout—another signal that much of the near-term narrative remains expectation-driven rather than purely fundamentals-driven. The Motley Fool
Fundamentals investors keep coming back to: revenue growth, high margins, and a huge cash buffer
Even the skeptics tend to concede that D-Wave’s financial position looks unusual for an early commercialization story.
In its third-quarter 2025 release (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), D-Wave reported:
- Revenue of $3.7 million, up 100% year over year
- GAAP gross margin of 71.4%
- Cash balance over $836 million, described as the highest in company history
- Bookings of $2.4 million, up 80% versus the prior quarter
That cash figure has become a central talking point in bullish coverage because it potentially extends D-Wave’s runway to iterate hardware, sell cloud access, and pursue both annealing and gate-model roadmaps without immediate dependence on capital markets.
The company’s own investor materials also emphasize that D-Wave is pursuing both annealing and gate-model approaches—positioning itself as a dual-track “commercial now, general-purpose later” quantum story. ir.dwavequantum.com
What Wall Street is signaling: optimistic targets, but big dispersion
Analyst-target aggregation services currently paint a bullish picture—though investors should treat these as directional inputs, not guarantees.
- TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $40 (high $48, low $35) based on 13 analysts in the last three months, with a consensus listed as “Strong Buy.” TipRanks
- TradingView shows a similar cluster: $39.64 average target with the same $48/$35 max/min endpoints.
MarketBeat’s more detailed rollup (as of Dec. 26) lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus and cites notable target moves such as Canaccord boosting to $41 and Evercore ISI coverage with a $44 objective, alongside other firms’ ratings in the mix. MarketBeat
Another widely read sector piece from Investopedia earlier this month reported that Wedbush initiated coverage of several pure-play quantum names with “outperform” ratings and cited a $35 target for D-Wave (and Rigetti), reinforcing the idea that some sell-side analysts see meaningful upside from current levels—while still acknowledging near-term pressure and volatility risk across the group. Investopedia
Positioning and sentiment: rising short interest, active institutions, and insider sales (with important context)
Two signals that often matter for high-beta small caps—short interest and insider activity—are especially relevant to QBTS right now.
Short interest: Benzinga reported that QBTS short interest rose 3.95% from the prior report to about 41.81 million shares, roughly 12.12% of float, with an estimated 1.3 days to cover based on trading volume.
Institutional activity: A MarketBeat filing roundup highlighted Osaic Holdings Inc. increasing its stake during Q2 (per its SEC filing), alongside other institutional position changes, and reported institutional investors own about 42% of the stock (per its summary).
Insider sales: MarketBeat also flagged heavy insider selling over the last 90 days and pointed to specific executive transactions. The underlying SEC Form 4 filings show that CEO Alan Baratz executed an option exercise and sale of 806,288 shares dated Nov. 11, 2025, and the filing notes the transaction was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted earlier in 2025.
A separate SEC Form 4 shows CFO John M. Markovich executed an option exercise and sale of 200,000 shares dated Nov. 20, 2025, also under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
That 10b5-1 detail matters: it doesn’t erase the signaling impact of insider selling, but it does suggest these were pre-arranged transactions rather than purely discretionary “I’m hitting the sell button today” choices.
Near-term catalysts investors are watching into January
While this weekend’s news cycle is dominated by price action and valuation debate, D-Wave has several concrete calendar items coming up that could influence narrative and liquidity:
- CES 2026 / CES Foundry (Jan. 7–8, 2026): D-Wave said it plans to participate and showcase customer use cases and hybrid-quantum work; executive Murray Thom is slated to present a masterclass/demo.
- Qubits 2026 conference (Jan. 27–28, 2026, Boca Raton): D-Wave says it will share roadmap updates across annealing and gate-model programs and feature talks from customers and research institutions. CEO Dr. Alan Baratz is quoted emphasizing “real impact for customers today” while advancing future technologies. D-Wave Quantum
- Government-focused push: D-Wave announced a U.S. government business unit led by Jack Sears Jr., positioning the company to pursue public-sector demand for quantum-enabled optimization and secure deployments.
For a stock like QBTS, which can trade as much on story momentum as on quarterly line items, these events can function as “narrative catalysts”—points where investors reassess whether progress claims are matching reality.
If you’re holding QBTS into Monday: what to know before the next session
Because the market is closed, investors have a small window to do the unglamorous homework that volatility usually punishes people for skipping.
First, separate the business from the stock. D-Wave’s recent quarter showed strong percentage growth off a small base and strong gross margins, alongside a large cash buffer. The stock, meanwhile, has shown it can move 5%–20% in a day without a single new filing.
Second, watch these practical indicators when markets reopen:
- Liquidity and gap risk: After a week like this, QBTS can gap sharply at the open. Friday’s low around $24.77 is an obvious near-term reference level traders will monitor.
- Sector sympathy: QBTS often trades with “quantum basket” peers and broader speculative tech sentiment; a risk-off tape can overwhelm company-specific positives. Investopedia
- Sentiment extremes: Elevated short interest can amplify both downside moves and fast squeezes—useful context for sizing and risk controls.
- Narrative checkpoints: CES Foundry and Qubits 2026 are real, dated events where the company expects to showcase progress—meaning headlines may cluster around them.
Finally, remember what both bulls and bears are indirectly agreeing on: execution matters more than vibes. Optimistic targets in the high $30s to $40s imply that D-Wave can keep converting “quantum curiosity” into recurring revenue and enterprise adoption. TipRanks+1 The bearish pushback is essentially a demand for evidence that the current valuation isn’t pricing in a decade of success all at once. Trefis+1
That debate isn’t going away Monday—but the next session will show whether buyers view Friday’s drop as a reset… or the start of something uglier.
