NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:38 a.m. ET — Market closed [1]
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with investors balancing two competing narratives: a year of breakout performance for the fintech-turned-digital-bank—and an increasingly loud debate over valuation and what comes next as liquidity thins into year-end.
With U.S. stock markets closed on Sunday, SoFi shares were last indicated at $27.07, finishing down about 1.6% in Friday’s regular session. [2]
Where SOFI stock left off heading into the next session
Friday’s dip came amid notably lighter holiday-period trading. MarketBeat reported SoFi fell about 1.5% on Friday, with volume running well below typical levels—an environment that can amplify price moves in either direction when trading resumes. [3]
The bigger picture is still hard to ignore: SoFi has put together a powerful 2025 run. A recent TipRanks roundup noted the stock has risen sharply year-to-date, and advanced about 9% over the past five trading sessions—a reminder that the Friday pullback arrived after a quick sprint. [4]
The freshest headlines in the last 24–48 hours: institutions, insider sales, and “what now?” analysis
Over the past two days, the most circulated SoFi stock items have been less about a single new product announcement and more about positioning—who’s buying, who’s selling, and how analysts are framing 2026.
Institutional ownership updates. MarketBeat highlighted a disclosure showing IFM Investors Pty Ltd initiated a new position in SoFi during Q3, reporting 209,790 shares valued around $5.87 million in its filing. [5]
Insider selling—confirmed in SEC filings. Two recent Form 4 filings detail planned sales under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans:
- SoFi CTO Jeremy Rishel reported selling 91,837 shares at $26.64 (transaction date Dec. 17, 2025), and the filing notes the sale was executed pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan adopted June 2, 2025. [6]
- EVP Kelli Keough reported selling 9,468 shares at a weighted-average price of $27.1386 (transaction date Dec. 23, 2025), also under a 10b5-1 plan (adopted July 30, 2025). [7]
Planned sales don’t automatically signal bearish conviction, but they do tend to enter the weekend “what’s driving the stock?” conversation—especially when a company’s shares are coming off a large annual move.
Wall Street targets and the valuation split. TipRanks summarized a divide that has become the defining SoFi debate: growth execution vs. what investors are paying for it. The piece cited:
- Needham analyst Kyle Peterson reiterating a Buy rating with a $36 price target, while incorporating the company’s recent secondary offering into his model. [8]
- JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith raising his price target to $31 from $28 while maintaining a Hold rating in a 2026 sector outlook. [9]
TipRanks also pointed to a Hold consensus view, with an average price target near current levels—supporting the idea that, for many analysts, SoFi is no longer “cheap growth.” [10]
Retail investor watchlist content. A Motley Fool article published Friday morning offered a more thematic 2026 outlook, leaning on crypto and product expansion as potential drivers while explicitly warning investors not to be surprised by meaningful volatility along the way. [11]
The fundamentals that powered the 2025 rally
SoFi’s surge this year didn’t come out of nowhere. In its third-quarter 2025 results, the company reported:
- GAAP net revenue of $961.6 million for Q3 (up 38% year over year)
- GAAP net income of $139.4 million and diluted EPS of $0.11
- 12.6 million members and 18.6 million products, both records, with strong year-over-year growth [12]
CEO Anthony Noto said the company delivered “an exceptional third quarter,” attributing results to innovation and SoFi’s one-stop-shop strategy. [13]
Just as important for a stock that trades heavily on forward expectations: SoFi also raised its 2025 guidance, projecting adjusted net revenue of approximately $3.54 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.035 billion, and adjusted EPS of about $0.37. [14]
Capital move investors still have on their dashboards: the $1.5 billion share offering
One reason valuation arguments have intensified is that SoFi’s stock has spent much of December orbiting a major reference point: the company’s early-December equity raise.
On Dec. 4, 2025, SoFi announced pricing of an underwritten public offering of 54,545,454 shares at $27.50 per share—about $1.5 billion in gross proceeds—with an underwriter option for additional shares. The company said proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including enhancing capital position and funding growth opportunities. [15]
For traders, that $27.50 offering price often behaves like an informal “line in the sand” level—less because it’s magic, more because it’s memorable. With SOFI closing at $27.07 on Friday, the stock is sitting near that marker heading into Monday. [16]
The crypto “second act” and SoFiUSD: why it keeps showing up in 2026 forecasts
SoFi’s crypto narrative returned to the spotlight in December—not merely as a retail trading feature, but as an infrastructure play.
On Dec. 18, 2025, SoFi announced the launch of SoFiUSD, describing it as a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. The company said SoFi is the first national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public, permissionless blockchain, and emphasized that reserves are fully reserved 1:1 by cash, with the ability to keep reserves in cash at its Federal bank account. [17]
Noto framed blockchain as a long-cycle technology shift and positioned SoFiUSD as a way to combine national-bank oversight with on-chain settlement. [18]
This matters for SOFI stock because it connects three themes investors care about:
- New fee and transaction revenue streams (crypto, remittances, payments)
- Differentiation vs. other fintechs if SoFi can act as a stablecoin “plumbing” provider
- Regulatory risk—because stablecoins sit in the crosshairs of evolving rules
Analyst “bull vs. bear” framing going into 2026
Across recent research roundups, the disagreement isn’t over whether SoFi is executing—it’s over what’s already priced in.
- The bullish camp leans on member growth, cross-sell, and new product rails (including crypto and stablecoin infrastructure), and sees capital flexibility from the equity raise as fuel for faster organic growth or strategic moves. [19]
- The cautious camp points to valuation and macro sensitivity. TipRanks cited SoFi’s forward non-GAAP P/E multiple as elevated relative to sector averages, alongside “macro uncertainty” as part of the caution case. [20]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s data recap put the company’s analyst consensus at Hold with an average target below Friday’s close (methodologies vary by service, but the direction of the message is similar: not everyone sees obvious near-term upside after the run). [21]
What investors should know before the next session opens Monday
Because the market is closed today, the practical question becomes: what can change before 9:30 a.m. ET Monday?
1) Holiday-week liquidity can exaggerate moves. Late-December trading frequently features lighter participation, which can make single headlines—or a shift in rates—hit harder than usual. [22]
2) Know the calendar and market hours. U.S. equities will reopen Monday for a standard session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [23]
Looking ahead, Nasdaq’s published schedule shows the next full-market closure after Christmas is New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026), with no indication of a holiday closure on Monday, Dec. 29. [24]
3) Keep the SoFi “reference levels” in mind. The stock’s proximity to the $27.50 offering price is likely to remain a talking point. If SOFI opens above that level, bullish narratives may emphasize regained momentum; if it opens below and slides, skeptics may frame it as lingering dilution pressure. [25]
4) Separate signal from noise on insider selling. The recent Form 4s explicitly reference 10b5-1 plans, which can reduce the informational value compared with discretionary, one-off sales—but investors often react to the headline first and details later. [26]
5) Watch for updates on the next earnings date—but treat estimates as estimates. SoFi has not confirmed its next earnings date yet, and major calendars can differ. Several services currently estimate late January timing for Q4 2025 results (for example, Jan. 26, 2026, listed as unconfirmed/estimated). [27]
Bottom line for SOFI stock heading into Monday
SoFi enters Monday’s session with strong fundamental momentum on the scoreboard—record revenue, profitability, and raised full-year guidance—plus a December storyline that blends capital strategy (the $1.5 billion offering) with product ambition (SoFiUSD and on-chain settlement). [28]
The tension is that SoFi is no longer the “turnaround flyer” it once was: it’s increasingly being priced like a premium growth financial platform. That’s exactly why the next catalysts—rates, credit performance, crypto traction, and execution against guidance—matter so much more when trading resumes. [29]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.fool.com, 12. investors.sofi.com, 13. investors.sofi.com, 14. investors.sofi.com, 15. investors.sofi.com, 16. investors.sofi.com, 17. investors.sofi.com, 18. investors.sofi.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. investors.sofi.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 28. investors.sofi.com, 29. www.tipranks.com
