NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:06 a.m. ET — Market closed
The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) heads into a post-holiday restart with a familiar year-end cocktail: thinner liquidity, hypersensitive price action, and global crosswinds that can look deceptively calm—right up until they aren’t.
With U.S. stock markets closed on Sunday, attention turns to what will drive Australian shares when the ASX cash market reopens in Sydney on Monday, Dec. 29. The key inputs investors are tracking now: index futures, a stronger Australian dollar, and a late-2025 surge in industrial and precious metals that could keep the resource-heavy Australian market in focus.
When the ASX reopens—and what the calendar says next
ASX trading is closed over the weekend, and the exchange returns after the Christmas/Boxing Day shutdown. The ASX’s official 2025 trading calendar shows Christmas Day (Thu., Dec. 25) and Boxing Day (Fri., Dec. 26) as closed, with the last business day before Christmas (Wed., Dec. 24) marked as an early close. [1]
Investors should also keep one more date front and center: the ASX trading calendar flags Wednesday, Dec. 31 as “close early”, with normal trading set to cease at 14:10 Sydney time. [2]
For regular sessions, CommSec’s market-hours guide summarizes “normal trading” as 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. (Sydney time) on ASX business days. [3]
Where Australian shares left off before the break
The last cash session before the shutdown—Christmas Eve—ended lower, even as the broader week finished positive. ABC’s market coverage reported the ASX 200 fell about 0.4% in the shortened session and ended the week up roughly 1.6%, with mining comparatively resilient as copper traded at record levels at the time. [4]
That “down day / up week” pattern matters for Monday’s open because post-holiday re-openings often bring a quick tug-of-war between:
- traders who want to lock in year-end gains, and
- portfolio managers rebalancing exposure based on where global risk appetite is landing as the year closes.
The freshest signals in the last 24–48 hours: commodities, currency, and offshore risk tone
Metals are still stealing the spotlight
Over the past two days, U.S. market coverage has highlighted how extreme the 2025 metals trade has become.
- Silver has been described as surging above $76/oz, with one Wall Street Journal piece noting the unusual milestone of an ounce of silver being worth more than a barrel of U.S. crude oil—reflecting both precious-metals momentum and weak oil pricing. [5]
- Copper has also been in the headlines: Barron’s reported copper testing fresh records, lifting large miners including BHP, while Capital Economics’ David Oxley cautioned that demand dynamics (especially China) could cool in 2026 even if supply remains tight in the near term. [6]
Why this matters for the ASX: Australia’s benchmark is structurally resource-heavy, and sharp moves in copper, gold, and other metals can quickly translate into index-level swings via large miners and materials-linked names.
The Australian dollar is firmer—watch the push-pull
Currency is the other lever investors are watching into Monday.
CME’s Australian dollar futures page showed the AUD around 0.6719 (as last updated Dec. 27), reinforcing the “firmer AUD” narrative into year-end. [7]
A stronger AUD can be a mixed signal for Australian equities: it may reflect improved risk appetite and commodity strength, but it can also be a headwind for companies reporting in AUD while earning significant revenues in USD or other foreign currencies.
U.S. risk mood: strong momentum into year-end, but Sunday is a pause
With New York markets closed today, the immediate “lead” for Australia is less about fresh U.S. price discovery and more about where global positioning wants to be when futures reopen.
Weekend market coverage in the U.S. has emphasized continued strength in large-cap momentum and bullish positioning heading into the final stretch of 2025. [8]
For ASX investors, this kind of global tone tends to support sectors that trade as “risk-on” (materials, cyclicals) while potentially pressuring defensives—though in thin holiday conditions, correlations can get weird fast.
What index futures are suggesting ahead of Monday’s open
With the cash market closed, many investors use SPI/ASX-linked futures as a rough “temperature check.”
Investing.com’s S&P/ASX 200 futures historical data shows the contract around the 8,740 area on the last listed date in that series (Dec. 24). [9]
The takeaway isn’t the exact number—holiday data can be choppy—but the shape of expectations: a relatively steady handoff into the reopening, with the bigger directional risk likely coming from offshore macro moves (commodities, FX, and global equity futures) once liquidity returns.
If the exchange is closed: what investors should know before the next session
Because the ASX is shut right now, the practical question becomes: what can change before the opening print on Monday?
1) Know the ASX session structure and timing
- Normal trading: 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sydney time on business days. [10]
- Since mid-2025, the ASX has also moved to a “single open” structure, with orders accepted earlier in the morning and the opening process consolidated (a key market-structure shift for how liquidity forms at the open). [11]
That means Monday’s early price action may be especially sensitive to any pent-up order imbalances accumulated during the break.
2) Expect thinner liquidity and faster moves (especially in high-beta sectors)
Holiday reopenings often amplify:
- gaps at the open (prices jumping from Friday’s close to Monday’s first prints),
- outsized reactions in miners, small caps, and high-momentum names, and
- sharper sector rotations if currency/commodity signals shift.
3) Watch the “triangle” that can move the ASX quickly
Into Monday, three real-time variables tend to matter most for Australia’s benchmark:
- Metals pricing and miner sentiment (copper, gold, silver headlines remain intense). [12]
- AUD strength (supportive macro signal, but a potential earnings translation headwind for some companies). [13]
- Global equity futures tone once major markets restart—often the fastest channel for “risk-on vs. risk-off” positioning. [14]
4) Keep the year-end schedule in mind
The ASX’s calendar flags Dec. 31 as an early close day, which can compress liquidity and accelerate portfolio rebalancing into the final sessions of the year. [15]
Forecasts and longer-horizon analysis: what strategists are saying about 2026
Even with a short-term focus on Monday’s reopening, year-end is when market players can’t resist the big question: what’s the next regime?
CommSec: “unpredictable” is the baseline, with macro and earnings early in 2026
In Commonwealth Bank/CommSec’s 2026 outlook, CommSec market analysts Laura Besarati and Steven Daghlian framed 2026 as another potentially headline-driven year—highlighting early-year earnings seasons, central-bank policy shifts, and China/commodities as key watchpoints. [16]
Daghlian also underscored how quickly markets can recover from ugly headlines—arguing investors can get punished for overreacting to noise. [17]
IG: technical targets point higher, but valuations and macro still matter
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore laid out a more technical roadmap in his 2026 ASX 200 outlook—discussing the index’s late-2025 correction depth and projecting potential upside zones into 2026 (with the important caveat that such scenarios depend on key support levels holding). [18]
His analysis also emphasized factors that have shaped Australia’s relative performance, including inflation dynamics, RBA constraints, and the index’s sector composition. [19]
Bottom line for the next ASX session
The Australian Securities Exchange heads into Monday’s reopening with steady index expectations, but a live-wire backdrop: record-ish metals narratives, a firmer Australian dollar, and a global equity mood that’s been upbeat into year-end.
In a market environment like this, the most important “before the bell” edge isn’t a prediction—it’s preparedness: knowing the holiday-altered schedule, respecting the liquidity conditions, and watching the commodity–currency–global-futures feedback loop that can move Australia’s benchmark quickly once trading resumes. [20]
References
1. www.asx.com.au, 2. www.asx.com.au, 3. www.commsec.com.au, 4. www.abc.net.au, 5. www.wsj.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.cmegroup.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.commsec.com.au, 11. www.asx.com.au, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.cmegroup.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.asx.com.au, 16. www.commbank.com.au, 17. www.commbank.com.au, 18. www.ig.com, 19. www.ig.com, 20. www.asx.com.au
