NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:42 a.m. ET — Market closed
Mexico’s stock market heads into the final trading days of 2025 on a fresh record, but with a very familiar late-December twist: thin liquidity. The benchmark S&P/BMV IPC ended the last session (Friday) at 65,636.36, marking another all-time high close and extending a multi-session advance, while the Mexican peso held below 18 per dollar—a combination that has kept investor sentiment constructive even as activity slows into the holidays. [1]
With the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) closed this Sunday, the setup for Monday’s session will be shaped less by local headlines and more by the usual year-end forces: FX swings that get exaggerated by low volumes, global rate expectations, and commodity moves (especially metals that matter for Mexico’s heavyweight miners). [2]
Where Mexico’s benchmark stands after Friday’s record close
The S&P/BMV IPC is designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid stocks listed on the BMV, offering broad exposure to Mexican equities. [3]
On Friday, the IPC’s record close came alongside signs of just how “holiday mode” the market has become. Reuters reporting carried by Mexico’s La Jornada pegged session volume at roughly 23.1 million shares, far below recent daily averages cited near 200 million. [4]
Two details stand out for investors heading into Monday:
- Leadership looked “Mexico-style cyclical.” Early in the session, the IPC pushed to another intraday milestone, helped by mining names—an important tell given the index’s sector mix. [5]
- The rally has broadened across the week. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller noted the week was characterized by low holiday volume globally, while highlighting notable weekly gainers inside Mexico’s market—led by Industrias Peñoles, alongside consumer and industrial names. [6]
The two engines investors are watching: peso + metals
Friday’s tape linked Mexican assets to two powerful, very tradable narratives:
1) The peso stayed firm—yet traders are eyeing profit-taking zones.
Mexico’s La Jornada cited Reuters in reporting the peso ended the week around 17.89 per dollar in wholesale trading, with analyst commentary pointing to strength but also proximity to levels where markets often pause. [7]
Forbes México, also citing Reuters, quoted Felipe Mendoza of IMB Capital Quants describing the peso as strong but near areas where traders “tend to take profits,” adding that his base case is range trading with micro-moves amplified by thin year-end liquidity. [8]
2) Precious metals are doing what precious metals do in a mania: dragging miners up the hill.
Mexico’s miners—especially silver-linked names—benefited from strong metals pricing, with Peñoles singled out as a key driver during the record-setting session. [9]
That matters because the IPC’s recent streak hasn’t just been a “one-stock wonder.” Siller highlighted that Peñoles has been a standout not only on the week, but across 2025 (a reminder that Mexico’s index performance has been tightly bound to certain sector winners). [10]
Rates backdrop: what Mexico-focused strategists are projecting into 2026
Even at record highs, Mexico’s equity story is still tethered to rates—both local (Banxico) and U.S. (the Fed).
BBVA Research’s Mexico Economic Outlook (December 2025) points to a scenario in which inflation trends toward the end of 2026 within the variability range, and suggests Banxico could pause in 1Q26 before additional cuts that would bring the policy rate down further. [11]
That kind of path—pause, then gradual easing—typically matters for:
- Equity valuation support (especially for rate-sensitive domestic names), and
- FX stability (because Mexico’s yield advantage is a major pillar of peso demand).
Mexico’s local rates were also in focus in Friday’s Reuters-cited coverage: Forbes México reported the 10-year government bond yield rising to about 9.05%, with the 20-year around 9.61%, underscoring that Mexico’s curve can still move meaningfully even when equity volumes are sleepy. [12]
Exchange-filed headlines from the last 24–48 hours investors shouldn’t ignore
While price action grabbed attention, the BMV’s own disclosure flow shows company and credit developments continued through the holiday lull:
Fresnillo’s corporate restructuring prospectus tied to Probe Gold
A BMV filing dated Dec. 26, 2025 describes a transaction in which Fresnillo plc could potentially acquire up to 100% of Probe Gold Inc. through an arrangement structure under Ontario, Canada corporate law. [13]
Fitch Mexico rating event referencing Pendulum
A BMV-posted notice dated Dec. 27, 2025 states that Fitch “ratifies ratings” for Pendulum as a credit asset manager (the notice directs readers to Fitch’s site for the full document). [14]
Debt-market alerts tied to MXMACCB (Banco Multiva)
Two separate BMV-posted notices (dated Dec. 26, 2025) reference issues around interest funding and payment mechanics for MXMACCB certificates, including one noting resources not received to cover interest at INDEVAL and another noting an incomplete interest payment (by a small difference). [15]
Why these matter heading into the next session: record equity highs can coexist with pockets of credit stress and idiosyncratic issuer news—especially in a market where liquidity is thin enough that single-name headlines can temporarily distort price discovery.
Market schedule: when the BMV reopens—and the next holiday to plan around
The BMV is closed today for the weekend. When it reopens, the core continuous equity market session runs 8:30 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. Mexico City time (which is typically 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET this time of year), with closing processes continuing shortly after. [16]
Looking ahead, BMV’s published holiday schedule shows the exchange is closed on Jan. 1, 2026 (New Year’s Day). [17]
What investors should watch before Monday’s open
Because the cash market is closed right now, “the open” is less about a single headline and more about the first real liquidity test after a record close. Here are the big levers likely to matter most:
1) Sunday-night and pre-open signals via index futures
Even when the BMV itself is shut, Mexico equity exposure can trade through futures. CME’s E-mini S&P/BMV IPC futures list Globex hours as Sunday–Friday 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET, with a daily halt window. [18]
If futures move meaningfully Sunday night, they can influence how local risk is priced when the BMV opens Monday morning.
2) FX first: USD/MXN as the “risk thermostat”
With Mendoza’s warning about year-end micro-moves being amplified by low liquidity, peso swings can translate quickly into index-level momentum—especially for internationally exposed issuers and foreign flows. [19]
3) Metals and energy
Miners helped drive the last record, so the next session may again lean on what silver and gold do in global markets. [20]
4) U.S. macro calendar, because Mexico trades in the same time window
For a holiday-shortened, year-turn week, U.S. data can loom larger than usual. Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights releases including pending home sales (Monday), Case-Shiller (Tuesday), Chicago business barometer and FOMC minutes (Tuesday), and jobless claims (Wednesday)—exactly the kind of inputs that can jolt rate expectations and spill into Mexico. [21]
Bottom line
Mexico’s stock market goes into Monday’s session with a record close in hand and a constructive narrative—firm peso, supportive global sentiment, and strong performance in key index names—yet the near-term setup is classic late December: thin liquidity, higher sensitivity to global rates and FX, and outsized reactions to single-issuer disclosures. [22]
References
1. www.swissinfo.ch, 2. forbes.com.mx, 3. www.spglobal.com, 4. www.jornada.com.mx, 5. www.eleconomista.com.mx, 6. www.swissinfo.ch, 7. www.jornada.com.mx, 8. forbes.com.mx, 9. www.eleconomista.com.mx, 10. www.swissinfo.ch, 11. www.bbvaresearch.com, 12. forbes.com.mx, 13. www.bmv.com.mx, 14. www.bmv.com.mx, 15. www.bmv.com.mx, 16. www.bmv.com.mx, 17. www.bmv.com.mx, 18. www.cmegroup.com, 19. forbes.com.mx, 20. www.eleconomista.com.mx, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.swissinfo.ch
