NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:51 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock heads into the last stretch of 2025 with the U.S. equity market shut for the weekend and liquidity expected to stay thin when trading resumes. Shares finished the most recent session essentially flat, a fitting setup for year-end conditions: limited catalysts, lighter volume, and index-level narratives doing much of the heavy lifting.
MSFT closed Friday, Dec. 26 at $487.71, down 0.06%, and later traded around $487.09 in after-hours indications, according to Investing.com data. [1]
A quiet close for MSFT — but not a quiet setup
Friday’s post-holiday session came and went with minimal movement across Wall Street, and Microsoft’s tape reflected that. Reuters described the market as largely “catching our breath” after a strong run, with strategists noting the potential for a continued “Santa Claus rally” bias even as light volumes can amplify swings. [2]
That broader backdrop matters for Microsoft because MSFT remains one of the market’s biggest index drivers—meaning even modest shifts in mega-cap tech sentiment can ripple through the Nasdaq and S&P 500 during thin trading.
What’s driving the market narrative into Monday
In the past 48 hours, attention has centered more on macro catalysts and year-end positioning than on fresh Microsoft-specific corporate developments.
A Reuters “Week Ahead” report highlighted that major U.S. indexes have been hovering near record territory into year-end, while investors weigh the outlook for further rate cuts and prepare for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, due Tuesday of the coming week. [3]
Reuters quoted Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, saying bullish momentum has remained supportive absent an outside shock. The same report cited Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, who flagged the Fed minutes as potentially illuminating for the rate path debate. [4]
Separately, Reuters also cited Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, discussing evidence of sector rotation and broader investor comfort with the economy’s resilience—another cross-current for mega-cap tech leadership into 2026. [5]
The most notable MSFT headlines and analysis from the last 24–48 hours
While there hasn’t been a single dominant, company-issued headline moving Microsoft shares over the weekend, several widely circulated analyses and filings-focused updates shaped the conversation:
- Holiday-thin trading recap: Trefis noted Microsoft’s Dec. 26 session was “devoid of any significant company-specific news,” describing the move as more about post-holiday trading mechanics than fundamentals, while still emphasizing the market’s longer-running focus on AI infrastructure buildout. [6]
- Bullish long-form thesis focused on AI commercialization: A Seeking Alpha analysis published early Dec. 28 framed Microsoft as an “AI utility,” pointing to metrics like remaining performance obligations (RPO) and commercial momentum while also highlighting risks such as capacity constraints and rapid AI hardware depreciation. [7]
- Institutional/filings-driven updates: MarketBeat published new items tied to institutional positioning disclosed in filings, including a report that Spinnaker Investment Group LLC increased its stake in Microsoft during the third quarter, based on its SEC filing. [8]
Investors should treat these as context rather than single-session catalysts—especially the filings stories, which often reflect backward-looking portfolio adjustments.
Where analysts see MSFT over the next 12 months
Wall Street’s baseline view on Microsoft remains broadly constructive, with many forecasts still anchored on Azure, enterprise software durability, and AI monetization—balanced against the cost of building AI capacity.
Two widely used forecast aggregators show a similar consensus:
- TipRanks lists an average 12-month price target of $631.36 (with $500 low and $700 high) and a “Strong Buy” consensus based on the recent set of published targets. [9]
- StockAnalysis shows a comparable average target of about $628.03 and also lists the low/high target range at $500–$700. [10]
A separate 24/7 Wall St. piece published Dec. 26 also referenced a median target around the low-$630s and described Microsoft’s 2025 performance as solid but still debated in the context of elevated AI investment. [11]
The technical picture heading into the next session
If you’re watching MSFT from a trading standpoint into Monday, several widely followed technical dashboards lean constructive—though, as always, signals during year-end liquidity can be noisy.
- Investing.com’s daily technical summary for MSFT shows a “Strong Buy” reading, with a 14-day RSI around 58.8 and moving-average signals skewed positive as of the latest timestamp posted for Dec. 26. [12]
- Barchart’s near-term “support & resistance” levels (based on its methodology) put nearby reference points around $486.41 (first support) and $488.57 (first resistance), with wider bands below/above those levels. [13]
Meanwhile, the most recent session’s day range was relatively tight ($485.96–$488.12)—another reflection of the holiday tape. [14]
What investors should know before Monday’s open
With the exchange closed now, the next actionable moment is the Monday, Dec. 29 regular session. Here are the practical factors that could matter most for MSFT into the open and through the final three trading days of 2025:
- Year-end liquidity can exaggerate moves
Reuters reported that light trading conditions can lead to outsized price swings, and strategists also pointed to the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window as a narrative investors will be tracking into early January. [15] - Fed minutes are a near-term macro catalyst
Markets are highly focused on the rate-cut path, and Reuters highlighted that minutes from the Fed’s December meeting are due Tuesday. Rate expectations can quickly impact mega-cap growth valuation sensitivity—Microsoft included. [16] - MSFT’s core debate remains AI payoff vs. AI price tag
Recent commentary continues to orbit the same question: whether the revenue acceleration from AI features in Microsoft’s product stack and Azure can outpace the depreciation-heavy capex cycle required to build capacity. That tension was explicitly emphasized in the latest long-form analysis pieces published over the weekend. [17] - Watch MSFT’s “quiet” close in context of the broader tape
On Friday, the overall market finished near unchanged in thin post-holiday trade, with strategists describing a pause after a strong run. If the indexes resume a year-end push higher, MSFT often participates simply due to its size and index influence—even absent a fresh company headline. [18]
Bottom line
Microsoft stock enters the final week of 2025 in a familiar place: a mega-cap leader with strong bullish consensus targets, heavy attention on AI-driven growth, and a market environment that can shift quickly on macro signals—especially when liquidity is thin.
When trading reopens Monday, investors will be balancing the year-end tape and Fed expectations against the longer-term Microsoft debate: how quickly AI products translate into durable revenue and margin expansion relative to the cost of building the infrastructure behind them. [19]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.trefis.com, 7. seekingalpha.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. 247wallst.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com
