NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:19 p.m. ET — Market closed
With U.S. stock exchanges shut for the weekend, investors are heading into the final three trading sessions of 2025 watching one big question: does the year-end bid extend into the “Santa Claus rally” window—or does thin holiday liquidity turn routine headlines into outsized moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)?
The Dow ended the last regular session essentially flat, slipping 20.19 points (‑0.04%) to 48,710.97 on Friday, while the S&P 500 eased 0.03% to 6,929.94 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09% to 23,593.10, according to Reuters. [1]
Even so, markets are closing in on year-end with indexes still near all-time highs after a strong late-December push—and with a holiday-shortened week ahead that includes Federal Reserve minutes and a handful of economic releases that could influence rate expectations into 2026. [2]
Where the Dow stands heading into Monday’s open
Friday’s session had the hallmarks of late-December trading: light catalysts, narrow moves, and a focus on whether seasonal strength can persist.
Reuters described the market as “catching [its] breath” after a strong run-up, quoting Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, who said the market had “a very strong five-day rally” and suggested the bias could still lean upward during the early days of the Santa Claus period. [3]
That seasonal window matters because it’s closely watched by traders—and it overlaps with a time when lower participation can magnify price swings. On Friday, U.S. exchange volume was 10.22 billion shares versus a 20-day average of 15.98 billion, Reuters reported. [4]
The Santa Claus rally: what history says (and what it doesn’t)
The “Santa Claus rally” is typically defined as the last five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January. In this calendar configuration, that window began Dec. 24 and runs through Jan. 5—a point also highlighted in mainstream coverage this week. [5]
In a research note referenced by the Associated Press and published by CBS News, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, cited a long-run seasonal pattern: since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3% return during the Santa Claus period with positive results about 78% of the time. [6]
Turnquist’s own write-up at LPL adds an important caveat: seasonal tendencies are not guarantees, and they do not account for fundamentals such as earnings, policy shifts, or economic surprises. [7]
For Dow-focused investors, the practical takeaway is less about superstition and more about market mechanics: holiday weeks can produce choppier tape and sharper reactions to incremental news—especially when positioning is being adjusted before year-end.
What moved the market in the latest session
Even in a quiet tape, a few themes stood out across blue chips and the broader market:
- Sector leadership was mixed. Reuters noted that among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, materials led while consumer discretionary lagged on Friday. [8]
- AI and mega-cap narratives stayed in focus. Reuters highlighted Nvidia rising after it agreed to license technology from AI chip start-up Groq and hire its CEO. [9]
- Activism and single-stock headlines mattered. Reuters reported Target gained after the Financial Times reported activism involving hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management. [10]
- Precious metals strength bled into equities. Reuters also pointed to U.S.-listed precious metal miners rising as gold and silver touched record highs. [11]
Investopedia’s Friday recap added that the holiday-shortened week still produced gains: the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose about 1.4%, 1.2%, and 1.2% respectively for the week, and all three indexes were up by double digits for 2025 overall in its accounting. [12]
The week ahead: Fed minutes, housing data, and the rate-cut debate
The headline macro event for the coming holiday-shortened week is the release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting.
In Reuters’ “Week Ahead” coverage, Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, said the minutes may be “illuminating” in understanding the arguments among policymakers—especially as markets try to handicap how many cuts might come in 2026. [13]
That matters because the rate path is still a key driver of equity multiples and sector leadership. Reuters reported the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, taking it to 3.50%–3.75%, while also noting the most recent cut drew a divided vote and differing projections among officials. [14]
Beyond the Fed minutes, Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar points to several scheduled releases that can influence rates and risk sentiment:
- Pending home sales (Nov.) on Monday, Dec. 29
- S&P Case-Shiller home price index and Chicago Business Barometer plus December FOMC minutes on Tuesday, Dec. 30
- Weekly jobless claims on Wednesday, Dec. 31 [15]
Rotation risk: why the Dow can behave differently from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
One of the most important narratives for the Dow right now is market rotation—and whether leadership broadens beyond the biggest technology names.
Reuters noted that after a period of tech weakness tied to worries about AI-related spending, investors have been watching for signs that other areas can carry the rally, citing strength in groups such as financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps in recent weeks. [16]
That rotation can be especially relevant for the Dow, which is concentrated in large, established companies and can respond differently than cap-weighted benchmarks depending on where leadership emerges.
In the same Reuters piece, Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said the moves suggest rotation toward areas with more moderate valuations and argued investors are “buying in to the narrative” that the economy is on solid footing. [17]
Meanwhile, Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, told Reuters that “momentum” remains with the bulls absent an external shock, adding to the case that the path of least resistance has been higher. [18]
What’s open, what’s closed: trading hours and the year-end schedule
Because it’s Sunday, there is no regular cash trading in U.S. stocks today.
- The NYSE’s core trading session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET on regular weekdays. [19]
- Nasdaq’s schedule similarly lists regular market hours as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended-hours sessions available through many brokers. [20]
For investors watching early signals into Monday, equity index futures matter because they reopen before the cash session:
- CME’s E-mini Dow listing shows CME Globex trading hours from Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET through Friday 5:00 p.m. ET, with a daily maintenance break from 5:00–6:00 p.m. ET. [21]
On the holiday front, the schedule is also straightforward:
- New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026) is a U.S. market holiday; Nasdaq’s holiday schedule lists the market closed. [22]
- Investopedia notes that while stock markets keep a normal schedule on New Year’s Eve, bond markets close early at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. [23]
What investors should know before the next session
With the Dow entering the year’s final stretch near record levels, the “what now?” checklist is less about one forecast and more about risk control and awareness of catalysts.
Here are the key items to watch before Monday’s open:
- Watch Dow futures once they reopen Sunday evening. Futures trading can set the tone for Monday’s cash open—especially during thin holiday liquidity. CME lists Dow futures trading beginning 6 p.m. ET Sunday. [24]
- Expect thinner liquidity—and potentially bigger swings. Friday’s volume was well below recent averages, and Reuters flagged that light trading can exaggerate moves as year-end adjustments play out. [25]
- Keep an eye on the Fed-minutes narrative, not just the release itself. Reuters emphasized that markets remain highly focused on the path of rate cuts into 2026; the minutes may shape expectations even if no single line is decisive. [26]
- Know the calendar: housing, inflation proxies, and labor signals. Pending home sales (Monday), Case-Shiller home prices (Tuesday), and jobless claims (Wednesday) are among the scheduled data points highlighted for this week. [27]
- Mind the holiday schedule for execution and cash management. New Year’s Day is a market holiday, and bond markets have an early close midweek—details that can affect liquidity, spreads, and settlement planning for multi-asset investors. [28]
- Treat “Santa Claus rally” signals as context—not a trading system. LPL’s Turnquist highlights the historical tendency for strength in this window, while stressing the limits of seasonality and the role of fundamentals and policy. [29]
Bottom line
As of midday Sunday in New York, the Dow is in “reset” mode: the index is coming off a near-flat Friday close at 48,710.97, still hovering near record territory, with only three sessions left in 2025 and a holiday-shortened week that features Fed minutes and key economic releases. [30]
In that environment, the biggest risk for Dow investors may not be a single headline—it’s the combination of thin liquidity, year-end positioning, and rate-path sensitivity. The early read will come when Dow futures reopen Sunday evening, and the more durable signal will likely depend on whether participation continues to broaden beyond tech as 2026 approaches. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.cbsnews.com, 7. www.lpl.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.cmegroup.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.cmegroup.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.lpl.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
