NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 11:52 a.m. ET — Market Closed
Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with shares hovering near fresh highs after a late-December climb that has put the pharmaceutical giant back in the spotlight for both defensive investors and catalyst-driven traders. With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, attention shifts to what could shape MRK when the regular session resumes Monday—ranging from year-end positioning and Fed expectations to analyst outlooks focused on Merck’s ability to grow beyond Keytruda. [1]
Where Merck stock stands with markets closed
Merck stock last traded around $106.78 at Friday’s close, as holiday-thinned trading continued across Wall Street. [2]
That finish matters because MRK has been pressing into new territory late in December. Price data show Merck touched $107.05 intraday on Dec. 26—an important reference point for investors watching whether the rally can extend into year-end. [3]
From a momentum perspective, MRK’s recent run has been notable even by December standards: between Dec. 18 and Dec. 26, the stock rose from $100.69 to $106.78, a gain of roughly 6% in just a handful of sessions. [4]
The broader tape: quiet Friday, but an upbeat year-end setup
Merck’s move is also playing out against a market backdrop defined by light volumes and positioning into the last week of the year. On Friday (Dec. 26), Reuters described U.S. stocks as finishing nearly unchanged in “light-volume” post-Christmas trading, with investors still watching the “Santa Claus rally” window that often spans the year’s final sessions and the first sessions of January. [5]
Looking ahead to the coming week, Reuters also highlighted two dynamics that matter for a stock like Merck:
- Rotation beyond mega-cap tech: Reuters noted that areas such as healthcare have posted solid gains while tech has been uneven in recent weeks—supportive for large-cap pharma when investors rotate toward steadier earnings profiles. [6]
- Thin liquidity can amplify moves: Year-end adjustments, lighter trading volume, and macro headlines can exaggerate price swings—relevant if MRK opens Monday near a breakout level around its recent highs. [7]
What’s driving the Merck rally: analysts get more constructive
A key fuel for Merck’s late-December momentum has been a notable shift in analyst tone.
BMO Capital Markets upgraded Merck to “Outperform” from “Market Perform” and raised its price target to $130 from $82, according to a Benzinga-distributed report that identified BMO analyst Evan David Seigerman. [8]
Investing.com’s coverage of BMO’s move adds color to the thesis: BMO argued Merck is building a portfolio that can support growth beyond the eventual loss of exclusivity for Keytruda, and said sentiment is improving around Merck’s core products and longer-term ability to backfill Keytruda’s peak revenue contribution. [9]
That upgrade has echoed through subsequent commentary. Trefis, for example, tied MRK’s recent winning streak to the BMO call, framing the move as a catalyst for a late-month re-rating discussion. [10]
Forecasts and consensus: upside exists, but “Hold” still dominates
Despite the recent momentum, the Street’s aggregate stance remains mixed.
MarketBeat’s roundup of analyst data describes Merck’s consensus as an average “Hold” with an average price target around $110.13, while also noting a wide spread of targets and ratings in circulation. [11]
That same MarketBeat coverage points to several bullish target moves among major banks in recent weeks—an important detail for investors trying to separate “headline momentum” from a broader trend in institutional expectations. [12]
One takeaway: even after MRK’s rally, many consensus-style targets imply only modest upside from current levels—while a smaller set of firms are leaning into a higher-upside, post-Keytruda-transition narrative. [13]
The latest Merck headlines in the last 24–48 hours
With no major Merck clinical-trial or FDA headline dominating the weekend feed, most of the truly fresh MRK-specific items over the last 24–48 hours are centered on institutional positioning and investor commentary:
1) Institutional filings / holdings updates
- Valley National Advisers Inc. boosted its stake substantially, according to a MarketBeat report dated Dec. 28. [14]
- Kempner Capital Management reduced its Merck position, per a MarketBeat report dated Dec. 27. [15]
- Brookstone Capital Management increased its holdings, according to a MarketBeat report dated Dec. 26. [16]
These “13F-style” stories don’t change Merck’s fundamentals overnight, but they can influence short-term narrative—especially in year-end tape conditions when investors are sensitive to signals about positioning. [17]
2) Weekend investor/sector commentary featuring Merck
- The Motley Fool highlighted Merck in a Dec. 27 article focused on “drug stocks to buy at a discount,” reflecting ongoing retail interest in large pharma as a defensive allocation. [18]
- Barron’s flagged Merck among a basket of “quality” stocks trading at a discount to the market in a piece published within the last two days—another sign that “quality/defensive” framing remains part of the MRK conversation heading into 2026. [19]
Policy and pipeline backdrop investors are still weighing
Even if it’s not “this weekend’s” headline, two ongoing themes continue to shape how many investors model Merck’s medium-term story:
Drug-pricing policy risk and the Trump administration’s deals:
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump and nine major pharmaceutical companies—including Merck—announced agreements aimed at lowering certain drug prices for Medicaid and cash payers. The Reuters report included commentary from Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen, who said the deals appeared designed to “deliver headlines and minimize” step-change impacts to company economics. [20]
For Merck specifically, Reuters reported the company said it would sell Januvia/Janumet/Janumet XR directly to U.S. consumers at roughly 70% off list prices, with additional direct-to-consumer plans tied to its pipeline cholesterol candidate if approved. [21]
FDA acceleration programs and Merck pipeline optionality:
Reuters also reported the FDA granted “national priority” review vouchers to Merck for two candidates—enlicitide (cholesterol) and sac-TMT (a cancer therapy)—a pathway designed to shorten review timelines dramatically versus standard cycles. [22]
While those Reuters items are from earlier in December (not the past 48 hours), they help explain why some analysts are becoming more optimistic about Merck’s ability to diversify growth drivers beyond Keytruda. [23]
What investors should know before the next session opens
With markets closed today, Monday’s open becomes the next moment when MRK can “price” the weekend’s positioning and the week-ahead macro calendar.
1) Watch the calendar: Monday starts a holiday-shortened week
Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights:
- Pending home sales (Monday, Dec. 29)
- FOMC meeting minutes (Tuesday, Dec. 30)
- Jobless claims (Wednesday, Dec. 31)
It also notes markets are closed for New Year’s Day (Thursday). [24]
For Merck, the most direct channel is typically rates and risk appetite: a hawkish surprise in Fed minutes can pressure equity multiples broadly, while “risk-off” sessions often favor defensives like big pharma. [25]
2) Key MRK levels to watch after a run to new highs
Merck’s late-December peak at roughly $107.05 is a simple, widely watched reference point heading into Monday. If the stock holds above recent breakout territory early in the week, momentum buyers may stay engaged; if it fades under recent support, profit-taking can accelerate in thin year-end liquidity. [26]
3) Next major Merck catalyst: earnings
Merck’s investor relations calendar lists its Q4 2025 earnings call for Feb. 3, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. ET. [27]
With that date now in view, expect more analysts to refine the near-term debate around:
- the pace of demand normalization for key franchises,
- visibility into 2026 guidance,
- and how management frames the longer-term “post-Keytruda” growth bridge that analysts like BMO are increasingly focused on. [28]
4) Dividend: what holders should know
Merck announced a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, payable Jan. 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025. [29]
For investors already holding MRK, the upcoming payment is a near-term return component; for new buyers, note the record/ex-div window has already passed for this payment. [30]
Bottom line for MRK heading into Monday
Merck stock enters Monday’s session setup with momentum, a visible technical ceiling near recent highs, and a more constructive analyst narrative led by BMO’s upgrade and “growth beyond Keytruda” framing. [31]
But the next few sessions arrive in a market environment where liquidity is light and macro catalysts—especially Fed minutes—can drive outsized moves. For MRK investors, the practical playbook into the open is straightforward: track whether the stock can hold above its late-December breakout zone, and monitor any incremental pipeline or policy headlines that could reinforce (or challenge) the emerging bullish thesis ahead of February earnings. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.sahmcapital.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.trefis.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.fool.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.merck.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.merck.com, 30. www.merck.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.reuters.com
