NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 10:54 ET — Regular session
- Coinbase down 0.1% after Needham lowered its price target to $290 from $400, but kept a buy rating.
- Needham pointed to weak crypto trading volumes over the next couple of quarters, even if prices stabilize.
- Bitcoin rose about 1.5% as traders weighed macro signals and year-end liquidity.
Coinbase Global (COIN.O) shares were down 0.1% at $233.47 on Tuesday after Needham cut its price target on the crypto exchange operator, citing continued weakness in crypto trading volumes. “Even if crypto prices are near a bottom, retail volumes typically remain muted until momentum returns,” Needham analyst John Todaro told investors. 1
The call matters because Coinbase’s revenue still swings with how much customers trade, not just where bitcoin is priced. Late-December sessions are typically thin, and that can expose any slowdown in activity.
Needham’s trimmed target still sits above Tuesday’s share price, but the $110 cut signals a tougher bar for near-term results. A price target is a Wall Street estimate of where a stock could trade over the next 12 months.
Bitcoin was up about 1.5% at $88,873 and ether rose nearly 1.9% to $2,987, offering some support to crypto-linked stocks after a choppy month for digital assets.
Volume worries have been a recurring theme for crypto exchanges. When prices stabilize but trading slows, fewer transactions mean fewer fees.
Retail volumes refer to trading from individual investors, which tends to fade quickly when momentum breaks. That matters for Coinbase because retail activity can move sharply in both directions.
Investors were also looking ahead to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, a release markets use to parse how policymakers are thinking about interest rates. Reuters has flagged thinning liquidity into year-end holidays, which can amplify moves across risk assets. 2
Crypto-sensitive equities were mixed in early trade. Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) slipped 0.2%, while bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR.O) rose 0.9% and miners Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) and Marathon Digital (MARA.O) each added about 0.7% to 0.8%.
For Coinbase, traders will watch whether the rebound in token prices turns into higher spot and derivatives volumes on major venues. Derivatives are leveraged products such as futures that let traders bet on price moves without owning the asset.
The stock has traded between $231.50 and $235.10 so far on Tuesday, keeping it near its prior close. That leaves it exposed to the next swing in crypto prices — and, more importantly for earnings, any sign of a pickup in trading activity.
With year-end trading typically light, moves in crypto prices and volume trends can set the tone for COIN into early January. The next key signal for investors is whether a post-holiday return of liquidity also brings back trading momentum.
