Strategy (MSTR) stock ends 2025 lower as bitcoin slips — what investors watch next

Strategy (MSTR) stock ends 2025 lower as bitcoin slips — what investors watch next

NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 05:12 ET — Market closed.

Strategy Inc shares last closed down 2.3% at $151.95, after touching $151.44 in the session, as bitcoin eased to about $87,744 early on Thursday. U.S. stock markets are shut for the New Year’s Day holiday. 1

The move matters because Strategy trades as a high-beta proxy for bitcoin, meaning it often magnifies swings in the cryptocurrency. Crypto trades around the clock, even when U.S. equities are dark, leaving investors to price bitcoin risk into the next session.

That link is under fresh scrutiny after bitcoin’s late-2025 slide, which has tightened the connection between crypto and broader risk appetite. For Strategy, the market’s focus is less on its legacy software business and more on its balance sheet and funding pace.

Other crypto-linked stocks ended the last session lower alongside Strategy. Coinbase fell 2.4%, while bitcoin miners Marathon Digital dropped 3.6% and Riot Platforms slipped 0.4%.

Bitcoin was on track to post its first annual loss since 2022, Reuters reported late Wednesday. “Bitcoin increasingly exhibits the characteristics of a risk asset,” said Linh Tran, a senior market analyst at XS.com, pointing to periods of closer correlation with U.S. equities. 2

Strategy’s own disclosures underline why traders treat it like a bitcoin vehicle. In a Dec. 29 filing, the company said it acquired 1,229 bitcoins for about $108.8 million, using proceeds from sales of its Class A common stock, and reported total holdings of 672,497 bitcoins as of Dec. 28. 3

The share-sales mechanism is typically done through an at-the-market, or ATM, offering — a program that lets a company sell newly issued stock into the market over time. It can provide flexible funding, but it also increases the share count, which investors often call dilution.

The wider market backdrop did not help sentiment in the year’s final session, with Wall Street’s main indexes closing lower in thin holiday-week trade. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.76% on Dec. 31, according to Reuters. 4

Strategy also faces periodic index-related uncertainty as investors debate whether its bitcoin-hoarding model resembles a technology company or something closer to an investment vehicle. MSCI is due to decide in January on whether to exclude Strategy and similar firms from some benchmarks, Reuters reported earlier this month. 5

Before U.S. trading resumes on Friday, investors will watch whether bitcoin steadies after its year-end slide and whether Strategy holds above Wednesday’s lows. Short-term traders also tend to key off the prior session’s range for support and resistance signals.

Macro catalysts are close behind. The U.S. Employment Situation report is scheduled for Jan. 9 and December CPI for Jan. 13, while the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is set for Jan. 27-28 — events that can shift rate expectations and, in turn, risk-asset sentiment. 6

Company-specific attention turns to earnings, with Strategy expected to report next results around Feb. 4 based on historical timing models. Traders will listen for updates on capital-raising plans and the cadence of bitcoin purchases. 7

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