NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:23 ET
- The U.S. granted TSMC an annual export licence for U.S. chipmaking tool shipments to its Nanjing plant, replacing expired “validated end-user” waivers.
- Sources said Nvidia has asked TSMC to ramp production of H200 AI chips for China orders in 2026, with work expected to start in Q2.
- Analysts’ targets for TSM’s U.S.-listed ADRs sit above the last close as investors watch export rules, advanced packaging and next-generation nodes.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said the U.S. Department of Commerce granted its Nanjing unit an annual export licence that allows U.S. export-controlled items to be supplied without the need for individual vendor licences. The approval replaces a waiver known as validated end-user status — which let designated plants receive some controlled items with fewer approvals — that expired on Dec. 31, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have received similar licences. TSMC said the Nanjing fab makes 16-nanometre and other mature-node chips and generated about 2.4% of the company’s 2024 revenue. 1
The policy shift lands as investors build a 2026 outlook for TSMC stock, balancing the AI boom against tighter U.S.-China technology rules. Even small disruptions to tools and servicing can ripple through chip output, and the market has treated compliance risk as a valuation variable.
On the demand side, sources said Chinese technology companies have ordered more than 2 million of Nvidia’s H200 artificial-intelligence chips for delivery in 2026, and Nvidia has approached TSMC to ramp production, with work expected to start in the second quarter of 2026. The sources said Beijing has yet to greenlight H200 shipments, even after the Trump administration recently allowed H200 sales to China with a 25% fee. 2
TSMC’s U.S.-listed American depositary receipts — certificates that trade in New York and represent its Taiwan shares — last closed at $303.89 on Dec. 31, data compiled by Finviz showed. The same data listed a $357.62 target price, with recent target increases to $330 at Bernstein and $325 at Barclays. 3
In a Dec. 8 note, Bernstein analyst Mark Li said the case for higher targets rests on “more CoWoS, more XPU & 23% revenue growth in 2026.” CoWoS is TSMC’s chip-on-wafer-on-substrate packaging technology, while XPU is a catch-all term for high-end compute chips; Bernstein expects CoWoS capacity to reach 125,000 wafers a month by the end of 2026. 4
TSMC has also started volume production of its 2-nanometre chips in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a company website update reported by Taiwan’s CNA news agency. The report said TSMC is developing an enhanced N2P version slated for mass production in the second half of 2026. 5
That roadmap matters for 2026 forecasts because cutting-edge chipmaking and advanced packaging tend to travel together in the most profitable AI and smartphone processors. Investors look for signs that capacity is rising fast enough to ease bottlenecks without squeezing margins.
The China angle is smaller in revenue terms, but it is a recurring source of headline risk. Policy shifts can change what equipment can be shipped, what customers can buy and which products can cross borders.
For AI accelerators, approvals are only part of the puzzle. Any renewed tightening in export rules or delays in China’s import clearances would test delivery schedules and leave analysts adjusting 2026 earnings assumptions.
TSMC has flagged AI as a key driver of its spending. In October, it raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to the mid-30% range in U.S. dollar terms and kept its capital spending plan at up to $42 billion. 6
That investment sets the stage for 2026, when customers will be pushing for more output at advanced nodes and in packaging. Investors will watch whether utilisation stays high as new lines ramp and as the product mix shifts.
The competitive backdrop remains crowded as customers weigh multi-sourcing and as rivals invest aggressively. For TSMC, the near-term question is whether execution on capacity keeps pace with demand, not whether demand exists.
With U.S. markets shut for the holiday, trading resumes with the same questions: how much AI demand translates into orders, and how smoothly chips can move across borders. Those answers are likely to shape where investors set their 2026 targets for TSM shares.
