NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:51 ET
Wall Street’s average 12-month price target for Palantir Technologies has risen to $186 from $153 over the past 90 days, with estimates ranging from $50 to $255, LSEG data showed on Thursday. The stock closed at $177.75 on Dec. 31, about 14% below its 52-week high of $207.52, and analysts now see 2026 earnings per share (EPS) — profit divided by shares outstanding — at $1.009 on average, up 18.8% in 90 days. Palantir ended 2025 with a market value of about $449.6 billion and traded at 193.1 times forward earnings — a valuation based on expected profit — while the average broker recommendation stayed at “Hold” ahead of the company’s expected Feb. 2 report, the data showed. 1
The updated forecast matters at the start of 2026 because Palantir has become a bellwether for AI-linked software shares. When valuation is stretched, even small changes in estimates can move a stock sharply.
That sensitivity is growing as investors shift from celebrating last year’s rally to asking what has to happen next. For Palantir, the answer hinges on whether profit growth can keep pace with expectations already embedded in the share price.
Palantir sells software that helps organizations integrate data and run analytics, with deep roots in U.S. government work and a growing commercial business. It has been marketing its Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP, as a way for customers to deploy AI tools on their own data.
The company’s surge has made it one of the market’s most visible momentum names. Palantir was among the S&P 500’s top gainers in 2025, rising 135% after a 340.5% jump in 2024, a MarketWatch analysis showed. 2
Some bulls say the stock can still climb if demand stays strong. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives set a $230 target and said demand for Palantir’s AI platform remains “unprecedented,” according to a client note cited by Business Insider. 3
Skeptics point to the same numbers and reach a different conclusion. The breadth of targets underscores how divided the market is on how quickly earnings can grow into today’s valuation.
The debate centers on execution and scale in 2026. Investors want evidence that AI pilots turn into recurring software revenue, and that margins expand without a surge in costs.
Palantir also faces a familiar challenge in enterprise technology: budgets are finite. Investors weigh it against other AI-exposed software names such as Microsoft, ServiceNow and Snowflake, which are all competing for corporate spending on data, automation and security.
For traders, the key risk is that valuation becomes the story again. When a stock carries a premium multiple, a slight slowdown in growth can hit the share price faster than it would for more cheaply valued peers.
Analysts have been pushing estimates higher, suggesting confidence has improved heading into 2026. The next results and management outlook will determine whether that momentum lasts.
For now, the Street’s average target points to only modest upside over the next year, even as forecasts for 2026 profits rise.
