NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:52 ET
Strategy Inc (MSTR) shares were last at $151.95, down about 2.3% from the previous close, after trading between $151.44 and $157.48 in the prior session. Bitcoin was around $88,540 on Thursday.
The 2026 outlook is coming into focus because index provider MSCI is set to decide by January 15 whether to remove companies whose digital asset holdings make up 50% or more of total assets — a threshold MSCI said raises concerns they resemble investment funds. Analysts have warned that a removal could curb demand for Strategy shares and ripple across a sector of similar “digital asset treasury” firms, including France’s bitcoin-buying Capital B. Reuters
Strategy, formerly software company MicroStrategy, has built its business model around using capital markets to accumulate bitcoin. A December 29 filing showed it sold 663,450 shares through an at-the-market program — a facility that allows a company to sell stock into the open market over time — raising $108.8 million that it used to buy 1,229 bitcoins, lifting total holdings to 672,497.
Wall Street forecasts for 2026 reflect that volatility. MarketBeat data showed a consensus price target of about $465 for Strategy shares, with published targets ranging from $54 to $705.
Chairman Michael Saylor has played down the threat from index removals. “It won’t make any difference, in my opinion,” Saylor told Reuters in December when asked about a potential MSCI exclusion, adding the company was engaging with MSCI over the review. Reuters
The market’s stance has hardened as crypto-linked equities repriced. Investors have grown more cautious about paying a premium for bitcoin-treasury companies after a sharp crypto pullback, Reuters reported, with Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet among the stocks hit as those premiums collapsed and investors shifted to alternatives such as spot ETFs.
Near-term earnings forecasts are also part of the picture, though Strategy’s results can be dominated by bitcoin-linked swings. Zacks’ consensus estimates project $46.02 per share for the next quarter and $78.04 for the full year, with revenue projected at about $473 million, while the stock is down more than 14% over the past month.
For bulls, the attraction in 2026 is leverage. When Strategy trades above the net asset value — the value of its bitcoin holdings, adjusted for liabilities — it can issue shares at a premium and buy more bitcoin, amplifying gains if bitcoin rises.
That same mechanism can turn against the stock. If the premium compresses, new issuance becomes more dilutive and the cost of funding can rise, limiting the pace of additional bitcoin accumulation.
Index inclusion is a key part of that feedback loop. Passive funds — index trackers that buy automatically — can underpin demand, while removals can force selling regardless of fundamentals.
The MSCI decision is also a test of how the market classifies the company: as an operating software firm with a bitcoin-heavy balance sheet, or as a bitcoin vehicle that functions more like a fund.
For 2026, the signposts investors are watching are straightforward: the January 15 MSCI decision, Strategy’s regular disclosures on share issuance and bitcoin purchases, and whether bitcoin stabilizes after a volatile year.
Strategy still sells analytics software, but its stock trades primarily as a bet on bitcoin and access to capital markets — two forces that will likely set the tone for its forecast into 2026.
