CASTLE ROCK, Colorado, August 11, 2026, 20:00 EDT
- Riot stock ended the session up 4.33% after rising as much as 16% before markets opened.
- A 191-megawatt AI lease provides $9.1 billion in base revenue up to June 2048.
- Annualized contract economics are robust, though complete delivery remains nearly two years off.
Shares of Riot Platforms, Inc. NASDAQ:RIOT rose on Tuesday following its signing of a record data-center lease. The 20-year deal secures 191 megawatts in Rockdale, Texas. Riot projects base revenue of $9.1 billion.
Riot’s $7.65 billion market capitalization is less than the headline value. However, the cash will be paid out across more than 20 years. That factor led the stock’s initial rally to recede, ending the session up 4.33%.
Riot described the tenant as a prominent frontier AI laboratory, without providing a name. According to Barron’s and Investopedia, which both cited sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic is the customer involved. Riot’s official filing remains the definitive reference for the contract’s details.
The agreement establishes an average yearly revenue of $455 million. It also equates to roughly $2.38 million per megawatt-year. Riot anticipates average yearly net operating income to range from $365 million to $411 million.
| New Rockdale lease | Disclosed value | Investor calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Critical IT capacity | 191 MW | 27.3% of Rockdale’s 700 MW total |
| Base term | 20 years | Extends until June 2048 |
| Base contract revenue | $9.1 billion | $455 million annual average |
| Revenue density | Not disclosed | $2.38 million per MW each year |
| Average annual NOI | $365 million-$411 million | Equals 80%-90% of yearly base revenue |
| Interim financing | $573 million | 6.3% of base contract revenue |
The figures shown above are based on publicly available data from Riot regarding capacity, duration, and revenue. These represent average values, not annual forecasts provided by the company. The first phase of delivery is planned at 96 MW in December 2027, with full delivery expected by June 2028.
The deal provides a higher per-unit value than Riot’s original data-center agreement. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. NASDAQ:AMD had first committed to 25 MW and $311 million across a decade. The latest contract delivers approximately 91% greater base revenue per megawatt-year.
| Rockdale agreement | AMD original lease | New frontier-AI lease |
|---|---|---|
| Starting capacity | 25 MW | 191 MW |
| Lease base term | 10 years | 20 years |
| Total base contract revenue | $311 million | $9.1 billion |
| Mean annual base revenue | $31.1 million | $455 million |
| Base revenue per MW each year | $1.24 million | $2.38 million |
| Maximum disclosed value with renewals | About $1.0 billion | About $16.1 billion |
Riot announced the AMD agreement in January. AMD has increased its contracted capacity to 50 MW since then. Riot delivered the initial 25 MW within schedule and budget during the second quarter.
Focus has shifted from backlog to execution. Chief Executive Jason Les called the lease “a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers.” He also referenced the timely delivery from AMD. Riot second-quarter release
The most recent quarter highlighted ongoing investor caution. Overall revenue increased by 14% compared to the same period last year. Data-center operating lease revenue posted a strong increase from the previous quarter. However, fit-out revenue declined, and Riot continued to operate at a loss.
| Operating measure | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $167.2 million | $174.2 million | Up 4.2% |
| Data-center revenue | $33.2 million | $23.2 million | Down 30.1% |
| Operating lease revenue | $0.9 million | $4.9 million | Jumped 444% |
| Net loss | $500.5 million | $237.2 million | Loss reduced by 52.6% |
| Bitcoin produced | 1,473 | 1,587 | Rose 7.7% |
| Cost to mine one bitcoin, excluding depreciation | $44,629 | $49,912 | Increased 11.8% |
Riot’s statements contain figures for both quarters. In the second quarter, data-center revenue comprised $4.9 million from recurring leases and $18.3 million from fit-out services. The mix of revenue sources remains in the early stages.
Trading volume totaled 76.25 million shares, more than quadruple the recent average at 4.22 times. The stock began the session at $23.57 and settled at $20.24. It ended the day ahead of two other listed mining peers, trailing only Cipher Digital.
| Company | Ticker | August 11 close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riot Platforms | NASDAQ:RIOT | $20.24 | up 4.33% |
| CleanSpark, Inc. | NASDAQ:CLSK | $11.52 | down 0.60% |
| MARA Holdings, Inc. | NASDAQ:MARA | $9.68 | gained 1.26% |
| Cipher Digital, Inc. | NASDAQ:CIFR | $17.21 | rose 5.39% |
CleanSpark NASDAQ:CLSK, MARA Holdings NASDAQ:MARA, and Cipher Digital NASDAQ:CIFR serve as helpful benchmarks for power and compute metrics. Closing information and Riot’s trading volume were sourced via Google Finance.
Wall Street sentiment stays positive. Of 14 latest ratings listed by Google Finance, 13 recommend buying. The consensus target stands at $34.43, representing a 70.1% premium over Tuesday’s close. Price targets continue to range from $25 to $42.
| Analyst | Firm | August 11 action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grondahl | Northland Securities | Kept | Buy | $26 |
| Martin Toner | ATB Cormark | Kept | Buy | $36 |
| Gautam Chhugani | Bernstein | Restated | Buy | $35 |
| Patrick Moley | Piper Sandler | Restated | Buy | $25 |
| Gregory Lewis | BTIG | Restated | Buy | $40 |
The recommendation table features ratings as of August 11. The price-target upside reflects the $20.24 closing price.
Risks: Riot is required to complete and fund the project ahead of receiving full lease income. Potential setbacks, budget overruns or reliance on a few tenants might reduce returns. Cash flow and the balance sheet remain influenced by bitcoin prices and mining sector economics.
The next validation is set for December 2027. Riot is required to provide the initial 96 MW and subsequently transition that output to sustained rental income. Until this is achieved, the $9.1 billion number continues to represent a long-term projection rather than realized profits.
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