CASTLE ROCK, August 11, 2026, 05:21 EDT
- Riot disclosed a 20-year, 191-megawatt AI data-center lease worth about $9.1 billion.
- The company expects average annual net operating income of $365 million to $411 million.
- Riot shares rose more than 22% before Tuesday’s opening bell.
- The first 96 megawatts are due in December 2027, leaving execution risk ahead.
Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT signed its biggest AI infrastructure contract yet. The 191-megawatt Rockdale lease carries $9.1 billion of expected base revenue.
The deal changes the scale of Riot’s data-center business. Average base-term revenue works out to about $455 million a year. That equals 65% of Riot’s second-quarter revenue annualized.
Shares jumped more than 22% in Tuesday premarket trading. Riot described the customer only as a leading frontier AI lab. Bloomberg identified the tenant as Anthropic, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Riot said the lease runs through June 2048. Two five-year tenant options could lift potential contract value to $16.1 billion. Those options are not guaranteed.
| New Rockdale lease metric | Disclosed value |
|---|---|
| Critical IT capacity | 191 MW |
| Base term | 20 years, through June 2048 |
| Expected base revenue | About $9.1 billion |
| Extension options | Two five-year periods |
| Potential value with both options | About $16.1 billion |
| Cumulative base-term NOI estimate | $7.3 billion to $8.2 billion |
| Initial delivery | 96 MW in December 2027 |
| Full delivery | 191 MW by June 2028 |
The lease table uses Riot’s stated contract terms and management estimates. The company also disclosed a $573 million interim facility from Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS for initial development costs. An investment-grade credit backstop is still being finalized.
The economics are the investor hinge. Riot projects $365 million to $411 million of average annual net operating income. That is 3.9 to 4.4 times its current data-center revenue run rate.
That comparison is directional. Current data-center sales include tenant fit-out work, while future NOI is after property-level operating costs. It also excludes corporate costs, interest and taxes.
| Second-quarter revenue | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Year-over-year change | Q2 2026 mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $174.2 million | $153.0 million | +13.9% | 100.0% |
| Bitcoin mining | $113.7 million | $140.9 million | -19.3% | 65.3% |
| Data center | $23.2 million | Not separately disclosed | Not comparable | 13.3% |
| Engineering | $37.3 million | $10.6 million | +251.9% | 21.4% |
The revenue table is calculated from Riot’s reported segment figures. Data-center revenue included $4.9 million of lease revenue and $18.3 million of tenant fit-out services. Bitcoin mining remained the largest business, but its sales fell as bitcoin prices and network economics weakened.
Chief Executive Jason Les called the new lease “a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers.” He said Riot had contracted 241 megawatts in six months, representing about $9.8 billion of long-term revenue. Company release
The other 50 megawatts belong to Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD. Riot delivered AMD’s first 25 megawatts on time and on budget. Another 25 megawatts are under construction.
| Contracted Rockdale portfolio | Critical IT capacity | Current delivery status | Disclosed timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 50 MW | 25 MW operating; 25 MW under construction | 10 MW due November 2026; 15 MW due May 2027 |
| Frontier AI lab | 191 MW | Build-to-suit development | 96 MW due December 2027; full capacity by June 2028 |
| Total | 241 MW | Two contracted tenants | Full stated buildout by June 2028 |
Riot’s portfolio table uses the latest construction schedule. The AMD lease began generating revenue in January. The next test is the 10-megawatt phase due this November.
Wall Street was bullish before the new lease. A recent poll showed 20 Buy ratings, one Hold and no Sells. The $29.66 average target had not yet absorbed Tuesday’s contract news.
| Broker | Recommendation | Price target | Latest cited action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, part of Stifel Financial NYSE:SF | Buy | $35.00 | Maintained, July 28 |
| Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS | Overweight | $36.00 | Initiated, July 23 |
| Needham | Buy | $28.50 | Maintained, July 23 |
| Citigroup NYSE:C | Buy | $28.00 | Maintained, July 8 |
| BTIG | Buy | $40.00 | Maintained, June 24 |
The recommendation table combines the most recent published broker actions. The broader consensus range was $20 to $45.
The balance sheet offers some support. Riot ended June with more than $1.2 billion of liquid assets. That included $548.9 million of cash and 11,380 bitcoin, although part of each pool was restricted or pledged.
Risks: The contract relies on phased construction, tenant credit support and final financing. Delays, cost inflation or weaker bitcoin prices could force more debt or equity funding. The reported Anthropic identity also remains undisclosed by Riot.
The next hard catalyst arrives in November with AMD’s 10-megawatt phase. For the larger lease, investors must wait until December 2027 for the first 96 megawatts and watch whether the interim financing becomes a durable credit-backed structure.
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