AMSTERDAM, January 2, 2026, 08:58 ET
- ASML shares rose more than 3% after Aletheia Capital upgraded the stock to “buy” from “sell”
- The broker doubled its price target to $1,500 and lifted 2026-27 forecasts on EUV demand
- Investors are watching ASML’s late-January results for clearer 2026 order signals
ASML (ASML.AS) shares rose more than 3% on Friday after Aletheia Capital upgraded the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker to “buy” from “sell” and doubled its price target — an analyst estimate of where a stock should trade — to $1,500. 1
The upgrade matters because investors are starting 2026 looking for fresh signals on chipmaker spending after an artificial intelligence-led investment cycle powered demand for advanced manufacturing tools.
It also puts the spotlight back on ASML’s order pipeline, a closely watched read-through for the wider semiconductor equipment sector. 2
Aletheia analyst Warren Lau said “stronger extreme ultraviolet lithography demand from DRAM suppliers” underpinned his call. EUV, or extreme ultraviolet lithography, is used to print the smallest chip features, while DRAM is a widely used type of memory chip. 3
Aletheia raised its earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 and forecast that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co could install 40-45 EUV tools as it expands advanced capacity by 40-50% in 2027. It also projected ASML’s “Low-NA” EUV revenue rising by about one-third in fiscal 2026 and by 50-60% in fiscal 2027, with overall sales growth in the mid-teens and then the mid-twenties. 4
“Low-NA” refers to today’s EUV systems; NA is short for numerical aperture, a measure tied to how finely a lithography tool can print.
Citi has also pointed to AI-driven demand as a key catalyst for a healthier 2026 outlook for European semiconductor equipment makers, according to a report citing the bank’s sector view. 5
The stronger tone on ASML comes as investors weigh how fast spending broadens into memory and other parts of the supply chain. Peers such as Applied Materials and Lam Research tend to benefit when chipmakers expand fab buildouts and refresh tool fleets.
ASML said in its latest quarterly results that it was seeing “continued positive momentum” around investments in AI that was extending to more customers, including in advanced DRAM. In the same update, it said it expected China customer demand — and its China net sales in 2026 — to decline significantly compared with 2024 and 2025. 6
China remains a key swing factor for the industry because export restrictions and local substitution efforts can shift tool demand and delivery schedules, especially for leading-edge equipment.
Investors will get a closer read on orders when ASML reports earnings on Jan. 28, according to Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. Markets focus on “net bookings” — orders received in the period — as an early indicator of chipmakers’ capital spending plans. 7
