NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 10:53 ET
- Broadcom shares rose about 3% as U.S. tech stocks rebounded in the first trading session of 2026.
- Benchmark kept a bullish stance on AVGO, highlighting AI semiconductor momentum and a higher price target.
- Trefis warned the stock has seen sharp drawdowns before and flagged risks tied to VMware churn, customer concentration and AI-driven margin pressure.
Broadcom shares rose about 3% on Friday, tracking a broader rebound in technology stocks as U.S. markets made a firmer start to 2026. 1
The chip-and-software maker has become a bellwether for the custom artificial-intelligence chip trade, as investors try to gauge whether surging AI orders can translate into durable profits. Broadcom has said it has a $73 billion AI backlog to ship over the next 18 months and expects AI semiconductor revenue to double to $8.2 billion in its fiscal first quarter, while warning gross margin will slip about 100 basis points, or one percentage point, as AI becomes a larger part of sales. “The backlog is still coming from only five customers,” said Kinngai Chan, a senior research analyst at Summit Insights. 2
That mix — rapid growth, heavy reliance on a handful of customers and pressure on profitability — is under fresh scrutiny as investors reset positions for the new year.
Benchmark raised its price target on Broadcom to $485 from $385 in a Dec. 12 note and kept a buy rating, a report on Yahoo Finance said, citing strength in the company’s AI semiconductor business. 3
A separate Great Speculations analysis published on Forbes said Broadcom shares have suffered two pullbacks of more than 30% in under two months in recent years, and pointed to three pressure points: VMware-related churn and margin erosion, concentration in custom silicon work, and AI-driven margin dilution. 4
Broadcom’s infrastructure software business, anchored by VMware, is a key source of recurring revenue. Bears argue that customer pushback on licensing and pricing could dent growth and squeeze cash generation.
On the semiconductor side, Broadcom’s push into AI includes custom chips — application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, designed for a single customer’s workloads — as well as networking components used inside AI data centers.
That business also forces a trade-off. Broadcom has said some AI products carry lower margins, and analysts have warned that profitability can come under pressure when “system” sales — packages that combine Broadcom chips with third-party components — rise as a share of revenue.
The debate is playing out against a competitive backdrop dominated by Nvidia, whose graphics processing units remain central to many AI workloads even as cloud providers explore more specialized alternatives.
In a Dec. 30 column, 24/7 Wall St said Broadcom’s AI growth and profitability could push it further up the market-cap ladder in 2026, putting it closer to the mega-cap cohort that includes firms such as Meta Platforms, Amazon and Tesla. 5
Broadcom operates through semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software, selling components used in data centers and networking alongside enterprise software. That mix has helped make the stock a proxy for both AI infrastructure spending and steady software cash flows.
