NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 11:13 ET
Adobe shares slid about 4.4% on Friday morning, turning lower after opening near the prior close in a broad pullback across big software names. Salesforce and Autodesk were also down, while Microsoft slipped about 2%.
The move keeps attention on one of the market’s live debates heading into 2026: whether generative AI — software that can create images, text or video from simple prompts — will erode demand for Adobe’s paid creative tools, or reinforce them by speeding up work for professionals.
Investors are watching for proof that AI features can become recurring, paid add-ons without weakening Adobe’s pricing power, a key driver of subscription-software valuations.
In a Dec. 31 note on Seeking Alpha, contributor Brant Munro, a CFA charterholder, argued Adobe is “mispriced at 15x earnings” and said AI disruption fears are out of step with the company’s results. He set a $595 per share price target and projected 19% to 23% annual returns based on what he called AI-driven growth and disciplined capital allocation. 1
A separate Benzinga analysis published on Thursday underscored the long-run case for holding the stock through cycles. Benzinga said Adobe has beaten the broader market over the past 20 years by 2.97 percentage points on an annualized basis, and that $100 invested two decades ago would be worth about $912 at the time of its calculation. 2
Adobe’s shares were trading around $334, with Google Finance showing a market value of roughly $140 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 20. The stock’s 52-week range has run from about $312 to $466, underscoring how sharply sentiment has swung around the AI shift. 3
“Annualized” returns describe an average yearly pace of gains over a period, while “compounding” means each year’s growth builds on prior gains — a point long-term return snapshots are designed to highlight.
Adobe’s core business sells subscription software to creative professionals and enterprises, with flagship products spanning photo, video and design tools as well as document workflows.
That subscription model makes confidence the key variable. When investors worry AI tools will commoditize design work, they tend to pay less for each dollar of earnings. When they believe AI makes a platform stickier, valuation multiples can expand quickly.
Competitive pressure is not limited to one rival. Large software vendors are pushing their own AI assistants into everyday workflows, and consumer-facing AI products keep improving, giving customers more alternatives for basic creative tasks.
For Adobe, the market is now weighing two narratives at once: the durability of its installed base and brand, and the speed with which AI features translate into incremental, paid usage rather than free experimentation.
