RIYADH, Jan 3, 2026, 07:02 ET — Market closed
- U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro.
- Saudi Aramco shares last closed at 23.88 riyals; Brent and WTI last settled at $60.75 and $57.32.
- Investors are watching for crude’s first reaction after the weekend and an OPEC+ supply policy meeting on Sunday.
Saudi Aramco shares are set for a volatile reopen on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States carried out a “large scale” strike in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. 1
Why it matters now: Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, and traders tend to price in a “risk premium” — an extra cushion in crude prices — when supply disruption risks rise. 1
That matters for Aramco because its cash flows and dividend capacity track crude prices, and the stock is a heavy weight on Saudi Arabia’s benchmark. Aramco ended the last session at 23.88 riyals, near the lower end of its 52-week range, according to Google Finance data. 2
Aramco last closed up about 0.2% on Jan. 1, while oil benchmarks ended the first trading day of 2026 slightly lower on Friday. Brent settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased 10 cents to $57.32. 3
MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic said, “Oil prices were likely to jump on the near-term risk to supply,” pointing to the Venezuela operation as a fresh shock for energy markets. 1
Early indicators from the ground suggested limited immediate damage to oil infrastructure. Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA’s production and refining were operating normally on Saturday and key facilities had suffered no damage in an initial assessment, two sources familiar with operations said. 4
Investors will focus next on official details of the operation and whether Washington tightens or reshapes sanctions that have constrained Venezuelan flows. Trump said more details would follow at an 11 a.m. press conference in Florida. 1
The oil market’s other near-term catalyst is OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia. The group’s eight key members meet on Sunday and are expected to keep first-quarter output policy steady, three OPEC+ delegates said. 5
That backdrop has kept crude in a relatively tight range despite headline risk. Analysts and traders cited oversupply concerns as a dominant theme after Brent and WTI posted annual losses of nearly 20% in 2025. 3
Aramco’s own pricing signals have pointed to softness in the spot market. Saudi Arabia is expected to lower February official selling prices for Asian buyers for a third month, refining sources said in a Reuters survey; Aramco sets those monthly prices and they influence regional crude trade. 6
For Aramco’s stock forecast, the short-term bias hinges on whether crude futures reopen with a sustained risk premium — and whether weekend headlines point to real export disruptions rather than a political reset. A sharp move higher in Brent would typically be supportive for Aramco, while confirmation that Venezuelan output is intact could limit the upside.
Before the next session, traders will also watch technical levels. Aramco’s last trading day range was 23.73–23.92 riyals, with 24 riyals the nearest round-number level in view; the stock’s trailing dividend yield was 5.55%, Google Finance data showed. 2
Beyond the immediate geopolitics, the next scheduled company marker is earnings. Aramco’s financial calendar lists its FY 2025 results for March 10, with investors likely to focus on dividend guidance and any commentary on 2026 oil demand and pricing. 7
