NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 07:07 ET — Market closed
Silver’s short-term forecast tilted toward a risk-driven open next week after U.S. forces struck Venezuela, and President Donald Trump said President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country. A U.S. official told Reuters Maduro was seized by elite special forces, and Trump said more details would come at an 11 a.m. press event at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
The shock lands as silver starts 2026 near record territory after a sharp run last year. It trades like a haven at times, but its heavy use in industry can amplify swings when growth expectations change.
Risk-off positioning — when investors cut exposure to higher-risk assets — can lift “safe-haven” metals such as gold and silver, which some traders buy as protection during crises. Interest-rate expectations matter too, because silver is “non-yielding,” meaning it does not pay interest and competes with cash and bonds when rates rise. “We are continuing to see the market talk about cuts in March and maybe another cut later this year,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities; Reuters also reported that markets were anticipating at least two quarter-point Federal Reserve rate cuts and that spot silver hit an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday.
Before the Venezuela news, spot silver was last up 1.6% at $72.39 an ounce on Friday, while spot gold rose 0.36% to $4,329.57. The dollar index firmed and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended around 4.191%, while U.S. crude settled at $57.32 a barrel and Brent at $60.75.
For next week, the key question is whether geopolitical risk outweighs the drag from higher yields and a firmer dollar. A renewed dash into hedges would put the mid-$70s back in view for spot silver (XAG/USD), with $75 a clean near-term line traders watch.
If tensions fade quickly and U.S. data pushes yields higher, silver is more likely to rotate lower and test support around $70. Silver’s pullbacks have been sharp in recent weeks, a reminder that positioning can flip quickly when liquidity is thin.
In U.S. equity-linked trading, the iShares Silver Trust — an exchange-traded fund that holds physical bullion — closed Friday at $65.75. That was up about 2% from the previous close of $64.42, and the trust reported 16,444.14 tonnes of silver in custody as of Jan. 2.
Energy markets will be a parallel read-through because oil shocks can feed inflation expectations and broaden hedging demand. Venezuelan state-run PDVSA’s oil production and refining operations were normal and its key facilities suffered no damage from the U.S. attacks, two sources familiar with the company’s activities told Reuters.
Before the next session, traders will be watching for follow-up from Washington and any response from Caracas or regional governments. Escalation would likely keep a bid under precious metals, while signs of containment could compress the geopolitical premium.
Next week also brings U.S. data that can move the dollar and Treasury yields — two inputs metals traders monitor closely. The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey is due Monday, with ADP private payrolls and the ISM services report scheduled for Wednesday.
The main macro test is the U.S. employment report for December, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the Labor Department’s release schedule. It is a key checkpoint for rate-cut expectations heading deeper into January.
Technically, silver is still digesting a steep pullback from the record $83.62 hit earlier this week. A break back above $75 would signal momentum has returned, while a slide below $70 would put last month’s rally back in question.
