NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 13:36 ET — Market closed
- U.S. energy shares closed higher on Friday, led by oilfield services and exploration names
- Crude ended slightly lower, with traders weighing oversupply concerns against geopolitical risk
- Markets next look to an OPEC+ output meeting and fast-moving headlines out of Venezuela
U.S. energy stocks kicked off 2026 with broad gains on Friday, with oilfield services and exploration-and-production names outperforming even as crude futures finished slightly lower. Oil Services ETF OIH rose 3.9% and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP gained 2.1%.
Among large caps, Exxon Mobil ended up 1.9% at $122.65 and Chevron gained 2.3% to $155.90, while oilfield services provider SLB jumped 4.8% to $40.20.
The outperformance matters now because investors began the year rotating into value-linked sectors and “real economy” beneficiaries, even as markets reset expectations for growth and rates. In the broader market, trading was light and sector leadership shifted away from megacap technology, a Reuters report showed. 1
At the same time, oil is coming off a steep 2025 slide, leaving energy shares sensitive to any sign of tighter supply or fresh geopolitical disruption. Crude’s push-and-pull between near-term headlines and longer-term oversupply forecasts is setting the tone for the sector early in 2026. 2
On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the main U.S. crude benchmark — settled at $57.32 a barrel, down 0.17%, while Brent — the global benchmark — settled at $60.75, down 0.16%, according to Reuters. 1
Investors are also watching OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — with a virtual meeting scheduled for Sunday, January 4. Traders widely expect the group to keep output increases on hold in the first quarter, Reuters reported. 2
“2026 will be an important year on assessing OPEC+ decisions for balancing supply,” Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said. 2
Other analysts have pointed to limited upside in crude without a clearer shift in fundamentals. DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said Brent could be largely range-bound around $60–$65 a barrel, while Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva flagged the tension between geopolitical risk and oversupply signals. 2
Geopolitics added another variable over the weekend after President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies were prepared to enter Venezuela and invest to restore production following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, according to Reuters. Chevron said it was focused on employee safety and asset integrity and that it was operating in compliance with laws and regulations. 3
Even so, the near-term impact on oil flows remains uncertain. Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA reported no damage to production and refining infrastructure after the U.S. strike, and two sources familiar with operations said facilities were running normally, Reuters reported. 4
On the supply outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average about 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, roughly 100,000 barrels per day less than in 2025. The agency also forecast WTI would average $51 a barrel in 2026, with Brent near $55, as inventories rise. 5
In the week ahead, investors will be watching for any shift in OPEC+ messaging on output, and whether Venezuela-related headlines translate into measurable changes in exports or shipping behavior. Macro catalysts also loom, with markets looking for a return to a fuller U.S. data calendar after disruption tied to the recent government shutdown, Reuters reported. 1
Before the next session, traders will also focus on energy’s earnings runway, especially guidance on capital spending, buybacks and production discipline. Exxon’s investor site lists a 4Q25 “earnings considerations” 8-K — an SEC filing used to disclose material information — expected after market hours on Wednesday, January 7. 6
Oilfield services could set the tone earlier: SLB has scheduled its fourth-quarter earnings conference call for January 23, while ConocoPhillips’ investor calendar lists its fourth-quarter earnings conference call for February 5. 7
