NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 13:10 ET — Market closed
- USAR surged nearly 19% on Friday, snapping a four-session slide into year-end.
- Attention shifts to early-2026 project milestones and commercial discussions around U.S. rare-earth supply security.
- Traders will watch whether the move holds into Monday’s open, with CES meetings set for Jan. 6-9.
Shares of USA Rare Earth (USAR) jumped 18.9% on Friday, the first trading session of 2026, to close at $14.15. U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, leaving the move to be digested ahead of Monday’s reopen.
The rally matters because rare earths — a group of 17 metals used to make powerful permanent magnets — sit at the center of the U.S. push to build domestic supply chains for defense and electric vehicles. Stocks tied to that theme have been prone to sharp swings, with timing and funding questions often moving prices as much as commodity fundamentals.
USA Rare Earth is trying to build a “mine-to-magnet” chain, and Reuters reported in December that it pulled forward targeted commercial production at its Round Top project in Texas to late 2028 from 2030. The company also plans a hydrometallurgical demonstration plant — a processing step that uses liquids and chemistry to separate metals — to start operations in early 2026 at its Wheat Ridge, Colorado site, Reuters said.
Friday’s move came after the stock closed 2025 at $11.90, following four straight down sessions through Dec. 31. The shares traded between $12.17 and $14.41 on Friday, a range technicians will treat as an early map for support and resistance.
There was no immediate company announcement tied to Friday’s jump, but the calendar is tightening. USA Rare Earth is scheduled to meet potential customers and partners at CES in Las Vegas from Jan. 6-9, according to its website.
On the Street, coverage still leans positive, though targets are wide. MarketBeat’s analyst compilation shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average 12‑month price target of $26.33 and published targets running up to $40.
Management has framed the timetable as a race to compress execution risk. “We’re challenging ourselves to innovate and pursue creative solutions that accelerate our timeline,” CEO Barbara Humpton said in a Dec. 10 release. 1
But the downside case remains straightforward: delays in proving out processing, cost overruns, permitting setbacks, or a tougher capital-raising backdrop can quickly reset expectations for development-stage miners and manufacturers. Any cooling in Washington’s appetite for industrial policy support would also test sentiment.
The broader peer group is also tied to policy headlines. Reuters has reported the Trump administration has discussed converting some federal support into equity stakes in critical minerals and listed USA Rare Earth among the companies in discussions, alongside MP Materials, which operates the only U.S. rare earths mine. 2
What the market watches next is whether USAR can hold above Friday’s close when trading resumes Monday, and whether CES meetings translate into concrete commercial updates. Investors will also have one near-term date circled: Nasdaq’s earnings calendar flags Feb. 5, 2026 as an estimated earnings report date.
