NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 18:21 ET — Market closed
U.S. officials have urged American oil executives to move quickly back into Venezuela and commit significant capital if they want to recover compensation tied to assets expropriated two decades ago, according to two people familiar with the outreach. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), which exited Venezuela and later pursued arbitration, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 1
The timing matters because crude markets reopen on Sunday with Venezuela back at the center of supply risk after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Washington maintained an embargo on the country’s exports, Reuters reported. Analysts said ample global supply could cap any near-term price jump, but the headlines raise volatility heading into the first full week of 2026 trading. 2
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, on Sunday reaffirmed a pause in output hikes for January through March and said the next policy meeting is set for Feb. 1. “Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 3
Exxon shares ended Friday up 1.9% at $122.65. The stock traded between $119.66 and $122.78 on volume of about 14.2 million shares, according to LSEG data.
Peers also advanced. Chevron rose 2.3% and ConocoPhillips climbed 3.3% on Friday, while refiner Valero gained 1.6%, MarketWatch data showed. 4
Oil prices, however, closed slightly lower on Friday as investors balanced geopolitical risk against concerns of oversupply, with Brent settling at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. WTI at $57.32, Reuters reported. Traders had been looking to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for confirmation that the group would stick with its first-quarter policy stance. 5
For Exxon, Venezuela is both a potential legal and strategic wildcard. Venezuela’s production averaged around 1.1 million barrels per day last year — barrels per day is the industry’s standard measure of output — and analysts told Reuters a meaningful ramp-up would likely take years even if foreign capital returns. 6
But the downside case is straightforward: if Venezuela stabilizes and sanctions eventually ease, more supply could find its way back into global balances and pressure crude prices that feed directly into upstream earnings. A messier transition would keep uncertainty high and could turn the story into a headline-driven trade rather than a fundamentals shift.
Technically, XOM is pressing the top of its 52-week range, with the high marked around $122.68 and the low around $97.80, according to FinanceCharts. Traders often treat those extremes as checkpoints for momentum and pullback risk. 7
Traders will watch Monday’s open for spillover from oil futures’ reaction to Venezuela developments and OPEC+ policy. The next hard catalyst is Exxon’s fourth-quarter earnings, with calendars currently pointing to Jan. 30. 8
