NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 19:25 ET — Market closed
- Home Depot shares last closed up 0.5% on Friday, while peer Lowe’s outperformed.
- Rate expectations and a packed U.S. data week are back in focus for housing-sensitive retailers.
- Next on the calendar: ISM surveys and the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report, with Home Depot earnings expected in late February.
Home Depot (HD.N) shares head into Monday with interest rates back in the driver’s seat after Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said policymakers may wait before cutting again. The Fed lowered rates by 75 basis points in 2025, leaving its target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Home Depot ended Friday up 0.5% at $345.82, market data showed. 1
That matters because Home Depot’s sales tend to follow housing activity and consumer appetite for remodels. High borrowing costs can dampen home sales and slow big-ticket purchases — expensive items such as appliances and cabinets — which often show up in the retailer’s average ticket.
Traders will get a fresh read on the U.S. economy this week, including the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday and the government’s December employment report on Friday. The jobs report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 9, according to the Labor Department’s release calendar.
Trade policy is another moving part. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation delaying planned tariff increases on imported upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities for a year, while keeping a 25% tariff in place, the Associated Press reported. A tariff is a tax on imports that can feed into retailers’ costs. 2
For Home Depot, the delay reduces the near-term risk of another cost jolt in categories closely tied to kitchen and bath renovations. It does not remove the existing levy, leaving companies to manage sourcing and pricing as demand remains uneven.
In its latest outlook update in December, Home Depot forecast fiscal 2026 comparable sales — sales at stores open at least a year — to be flat to up 2%, and adjusted earnings per share to be flat to 4% higher, Reuters reported. CFO Richard McPhail told analysts the company had not yet seen “a catalyst or an inflection in housing activity.” 3
Lowe’s (LOW.N), Home Depot’s closest listed peer, climbed about 2.4% on Friday, outpacing Home Depot’s gain.
Technicians will also be watching how the stock behaves around round-number levels. Home Depot traded between $341.10 and $348.40 in the last session, leaving $350 as a near-term hurdle and the low-$340s as a key area to defend.
But the downside risk is clear: if the jobs data or other releases reinforce the case that rates stay restrictive for longer, the housing-sensitive parts of Home Depot’s business can soften, particularly larger renovation projects that often depend on financing.
The next catalysts come quickly — Monday’s ISM factory survey and Friday’s payrolls report will set the tone for rate expectations, with the Fed’s next policy meeting scheduled for Jan. 27-28. Home Depot’s next earnings report is expected around Feb. 24, according to Investing.com. 4
