NEW YORK, Jan 5, 2026, 05:22 ET — Premarket
- ASML shares rise in Amsterdam after Bernstein upgrades to “outperform” and lifts target to 1,300 euros
- Bernstein flags stronger DRAM investment and higher “lithography intensity” at the next node
- Next catalysts include U.S. data this week and ASML’s Jan. 28 results for 2026 guidance
ASML Holding N.V. shares rose 3.2% in early Amsterdam trading on Monday after Bernstein upgraded the chip equipment maker to “outperform” from “market perform” and raised its price target to 1,300 euros from 800. The move put fresh attention on memory-chip spending plans at the start of 2026. 1
ASML sits at the choke point of lithography — the process that uses light to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers — and its order pipeline is often treated as an early read on chipmakers’ capital spending.
The Bernstein call lands weeks before ASML reports fourth-quarter results and gives investors a bullish marker for 2026 demand as the market looks beyond a holiday-thinned stretch of trading. It also speaks to a debate over whether AI-driven demand will spill more forcefully into memory, not just leading-edge logic chips.
In the U.S., ASML’s New York-listed shares closed Friday up about 8.7% at $1,163.78.
For ASML, the swing factor remains net bookings — the company’s measure of new orders — because deliveries can be lumpy and lead times are long. Traders often use bookings as a gauge of where revenue is headed several quarters out.
Bernstein analyst David Dai said the market is underestimating the scale of planned capacity expansion at the three largest DRAM makers, which he said could add up to 250,000 wafers per month of new, “greenfield” capacity — new factories built from scratch — in 2026. “This is great for ASML, as litho intensity for 1c is 28% based on our estimates, much higher than previous nodes of 20–24%,” Dai wrote. 2
DRAM is a type of memory chip used in phones, PCs and data-center servers. Lithography intensity is shorthand for how many lithography steps go into each wafer; higher intensity tends to lift demand for ASML’s scanners, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools that use very short-wavelength light.
ASML also pushed toward a fresh record above €1,024 in Amsterdam, while German chip equipment supplier Aixtron gained 4.4% in Frankfurt as investors read across the sector, dpa-AFX reported. 3
Still, the upgrade assumes customers stick to aggressive spending plans, and any delay in new fabs or node migrations can ripple through ASML’s shipment schedule. ASML has warned that China customer demand — a swing factor for its deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools — is expected to decline significantly in 2026 versus 2024 and 2025, and it has said it intended to announce a new share buyback programme in January. 4
