NEW YORK, January 5, 2026, 09:28 (EST) — Premarket
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were higher as energy shares rallied after President Donald Trump said U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro.
- Oil prices stayed rangebound near $61 a barrel, with traders citing ample supply and Trump’s insistence that a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan crude remains in place.
- Investors are watching Maduro’s New York court appearance and a busy U.S. data week that ends with Friday’s jobs report.
U.S. stock futures edged higher before Monday’s open while oil and refinery shares jumped, as investors largely treated Washington’s weekend capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as a contained shock rather than a broader risk-off event.
The market’s early reaction matters because global equities entered 2026 near record highs, leaving little room for geopolitical surprises that could reprice risk quickly. The U.S. action in Venezuela is also the most direct intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama, a shift that investors say is hard to handicap.
Investors are now weighing whether Trump’s warnings of possible further action — including threats directed at Colombia and Mexico — signal a broader willingness to use military force to achieve policy goals. Some strategists say markets have become desensitized, even as the episode revives questions about spillovers to other flashpoints, including Iran and Taiwan.
Across asset classes, the moves were selective. Spot gold — a “safe-haven” asset investors often buy as a shelter during turmoil — was up about 2% at $4,418 an ounce, while Brent crude hovered near $61 a barrel. Reuters
In equities, the tone remained steady into the open. At 8:41 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.23% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 0.62%, while Dow e-minis were fractionally lower.
Oil’s muted reaction sat at the center of investor debate. “The muted reaction (in oil prices) suggests that traders were looking beyond immediate geopolitical developments,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. Reuters
Energy stocks moved sharply anyway, on the bet that Washington’s pressure campaign could eventually open access to Venezuela’s vast reserves even as Trump said the embargo on Venezuelan oil remained in place. Chevron was up about 6.5% in premarket trade, while refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero and PBF Energy rose between 4% and 11%; oilfield services firms were also stronger.
In credit markets, Venezuela’s defaulted government bonds and PDVSA debt rallied, with some prices up as much as 8.5 cents on the dollar, as investors positioned for a possible sovereign debt restructuring — the process of rewriting a country’s debts, often including “haircuts” that reduce what creditors get back. Analysts cautioned the process would likely be lengthy and complex given the size of Venezuela’s obligations and legal constraints. Reuters
Policy uncertainty is still the overhang. Trump said he could order another strike if Venezuela does not cooperate with U.S. efforts to open up its oil industry and curb drug trafficking, and U.S. officials have told oil executives they would need to invest quickly if they want compensation for assets expropriated years ago, Reuters reported.
But the downside scenario is clear: an escalation that disrupts regional stability, complicates sanctions policy, or delays investment in Venezuela’s aging energy infrastructure could reprice both oil and risk assets. Goldman Sachs has said any production recovery would likely be gradual and investment-heavy, with near-term price risks tied to how U.S. sanctions evolve.
Later on Monday, investors will look for headlines from Maduro’s initial U.S. court appearance in New York, while macro traders turn to the ISM manufacturing report after the bell and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. Markets were pricing roughly 60 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year — about 0.60 percentage point — heading into the week.
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