New York, January 5, 2026, 10:56 (EST) — Regular session
- Oracle shares were little changed after Jefferies reiterated a bullish view on the stock
- Investors remain focused on the cash-flow hit from Oracle’s AI data-center buildout
- Key macro catalysts this week include ISM Services (Jan. 7) and U.S. payrolls (Jan. 9)
Oracle Corp (ORCL) shares were little changed on Monday after Jefferies reiterated a buy rating and kept a $400 price target on the cloud software company. The stock was up about 0.1% at $196.00 after swinging between $194.97 and $201.51 in early trade. 1
The call lands as Oracle tries to steady sentiment after a late-2025 slide, when its rising spending plans revived worries about free cash flow — the cash left after expenses and investment. In December, Oracle said fiscal 2026 capital expenditures, or spending on items such as data centers, would run about $15 billion above its prior estimate. 2
That matters because Oracle is betting on cloud infrastructure demand to turn a swelling contract pipeline into revenue while it builds out capacity. Investors have also started the year keyed to interest-rate signals, which can move richly valued software names even when company news is quiet.
Jefferies said Oracle’s strategy hinges on rapidly expanding data-center capacity and converting more than $523 billion of backlog into sales, while enterprises spread workloads across multiple clouds. “Oracle is a top pick despite ongoing debate around its growing AI-related debt and ability to fund aggressive expansion,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote. 3
Oracle reported second-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion in December and said remaining performance obligations — contracted work not yet recorded as revenue — rose to $523 billion. Oracle’s board also declared a quarterly dividend of 50 cents a share, payable Jan. 23 to shareholders of record on Jan. 9, a filing showed. 4
Macro data set the tone for rate-sensitive stocks on Monday after the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity stayed in contraction in December and the index slipped to a 14-month low. The report kept a spotlight on sticky input costs, a backdrop that can tighten financial conditions and weigh on long-duration tech valuations. 5
A push back above the round-number $200 level would help reset near-term momentum after the stock’s pullback, while the day’s $195 area is emerging as a line in the sand after the morning dip. For many investors, the bigger tell remains whether Oracle can sustain cloud growth as it ramps capacity.
But the downside case is straightforward: if the data-center buildout costs more than expected or customer deployments slow, margins and free cash flow may stay under pressure longer. Any fresh sign that AI cloud demand is cooling could revive the concerns that drove the stock’s December swoon.
Next up are Wednesday’s ISM Services PMI and Friday’s U.S. employment report, both key inputs to the interest-rate outlook. Oracle’s dividend record date also falls on Jan. 9, putting a shareholder payout checkpoint alongside one of the week’s biggest macro catalysts. 6
