New York, January 5, 2026, 12:00 (EST) — Regular session
- Costco shares rose about 2% in midday trade as Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform and lifted its target to $1,000.
- The broker said worries about slowing membership and comparable sales are being distorted by “fill-in” warehouse openings in existing markets.
- The next near-term test is Costco’s December sales report due Jan. 7.
Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) was up 2.2% at $873.54 in midday trading on Monday, after closing at $854.50 in the previous session.
The move followed Mizuho’s upgrade of the warehouse-club retailer to Outperform from Neutral and a price-target increase to $1,000 from $950, with the firm adding Costco to its Top Picks list. “Shares have corrected ~20% on concerns that both membership and comp sales growth are slowing,” Mizuho analyst David Bellinger wrote. 1
Those worries matter because comparable sales — revenue at stores open at least a year — is a closely watched read on momentum in retail. New warehouse openings in established markets can pull traffic and sign-ups from nearby clubs, making headline growth look softer even when demand holds up.
Bellinger said roughly half of recent U.S. warehouse openings are “fill-ins,” and pointed to accelerating trade-ups into higher-tier memberships alongside domestic renewal rates above 90%. He also warned that year-ago comparisons will be difficult over the next few months. 1
On costs, Bellinger said wage growth should normalize near 2% annually and easing operating expenses could improve operating leverage — when profits grow faster than sales. He set the $1,000 target by applying a roughly 40-times earnings multiple, a valuation yardstick, to his fiscal 2028 estimate of $25 a share, and flagged the possibility of another special dividend in fiscal 2027. 2
At Monday’s price, the $1,000 target implies about 15% upside. That is a narrow margin for error for a stock investors often treat as a premium name in retail.
Other consumer names were mixed, with Walmart up 0.7% and Target up 1.1%, while BJ’s Wholesale Club slipped 0.3% in midday trading.
Costco’s corporate calendar lists a fiscal second-quarter earnings call for March 5 at 2 p.m. PT. 3
But the nearer risk point comes sooner. If the next sales update shows a sharper slowdown than investors expect — or if cost pressures do not ease — the stock’s premium valuation could amplify the reaction.
The next catalyst is Costco’s December sales report, scheduled for Jan. 7 at 1:15 p.m. PT, according to the company’s events schedule. 4
