Toronto, Jan 5, 2026, 14:19 (EST) — Regular session
- Cenovus Energy shares slid about 5% in afternoon trading, underperforming the broader U.S. energy sector.
- Investors sold Canadian heavy-oil producers as talk of Venezuelan barrels returning to the U.S. weighed on pricing assumptions.
- Focus turns to Washington’s next move on Venezuela policy and Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Cenovus Energy Inc shares fell more than 5% on Monday afternoon, tracking a selloff in Canadian oil sands producers as investors weighed whether Venezuela’s heavy crude could re-enter U.S. markets and pressure Canadian pricing. The U.S.-listed stock was down 5.3% at $16.60, after touching a session low of $15.81.
The slide matters because Venezuela and Western Canada both sell heavy crude, a thicker grade that needs complex refineries to process. Any policy shift that speeds Venezuelan flows back toward U.S. Gulf Coast refineries risks narrowing the “scarcity premium” that has supported Canadian heavy barrels in recent quarters. 1
Oil prices were up more than 1% midday as traders assessed the implications of Venezuela’s upheaval, highlighting how fast the narrative is shifting from immediate disruption to longer-run supply. “It will take some time for Venezuela to increase production,” said Simon Wong, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. 2
U.S. energy shares moved the other way. The S&P 500 energy index hit an over one-year high, helped by gains in Exxon Mobil and a jump in Chevron as investors speculated U.S. firms could eventually gain greater access to Venezuela’s reserves, even as Washington said the embargo remained in place. 3
Canadian peers were also lower in New York trading. Canadian Natural Resources fell 5.4%, while Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil were down about 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively.
For Cenovus, the move lands as the company prepares to execute a heavier 2026 plan after its MEG deal. A December filing outlined 2026 capital investment of $5.0 billion to $5.3 billion and projected first oil from the West White Rose offshore project in the second quarter. 4
Separately, a Form 25 filing showed the New York Stock Exchange moved to remove Cenovus warrants from listing and registration. Warrants are securities that gave holders the right to buy shares at a preset price; the filing does not affect the company’s common stock listing. 5
The risk for bulls is that the market starts to price in not just a symbolic change in Caracas, but a meaningful shift in heavy-crude trade flows—especially if refiners get more choice and Canadian barrels have to clear at wider discounts. The counterpoint is that rebuilding Venezuela’s production base is slow work, and investors can be early in discounting barrels that are not yet on the water.
