Why Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) shares fell 3% as Australia’s CPI test nears

Why Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) shares fell 3% as Australia’s CPI test nears

Sydney, Jan 6, 2026, 16:57 AEDT — Market closed

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares closed down 2.95% at A$155.85.
  • The ASX 200 ended down 0.43% as financials slid while miners rose on firmer commodity prices.
  • Focus shifts to the ABS monthly CPI on Jan. 7, ahead of the RBA decision on Feb. 3 and CBA’s half-year results on Feb. 11.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares closed down 2.95% at A$155.85 on Tuesday, giving up early gains as investors sold rate-sensitive banks into the close. 1

The drop lands hours before Australia’s next inflation reading, with the ABS set to publish the monthly consumer price index for November on Wednesday, Jan. 7. 2

That matters for CBA stock because the bank is widely treated as a bellwether for domestic rates. Higher rates can widen banks’ net interest margin — the spread between what they earn on loans and pay on deposits — but can also slow credit growth and lift bad debts.

The broader market was weaker. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.43% to 8,690.7, with financials down more than 1% while materials stocks climbed about 2% on stronger commodity prices, a CBA Newsroom/AAP report said. 3

CBA traded between A$155.68 and A$160.93, after opening at A$160.90, and finished at its lowest close since Dec. 18, Investing.com data showed. 1

A Reuters report carried by ABC said investors were watching Wednesday’s CPI for direction after the RBA’s recent hawkish tone, with markets pricing a meaningful chance of a move as soon as February. 4

“The shift in cash rate expectations is being felt across the market,” Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said. 5

For CBA, the next company-specific catalyst is its half-year results and interim dividend announcement on Feb. 11, followed by an ex-dividend date on Feb. 18, the bank’s financial calendar shows. 6

There was no fresh company filing to pin Tuesday’s move on: CBA’s latest listed ASX announcement on a compiled announcements feed was dated Dec. 22. 7

The risk for investors is that a hotter-than-expected CPI print could harden expectations of tighter policy, lifting funding costs and stoking concern about mortgage stress, even if higher rates can support lending margins. A softer print would likely ease the pressure on bank valuations, but could also revive debate about slower earnings growth into results season.

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