Sydney, Jan 6, 2026, 18:45 AEDT — Market closed
- Coles closed down 2.8%, underperforming a weaker Australian share market.
- Investors are positioning for Wednesday’s inflation print and its impact on rate expectations.
- Coles’ next scheduled update is its HY26 results on Feb. 27.
Coles Group Ltd shares ended Tuesday down 2.8% at A$20.57, after sliding from an early A$21.11 and trading as low as A$20.55, the company’s investor page showed. 1
The drop left Coles lagging the broader market as Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 closed 0.52% lower, with investors focused on the next inflation reading. “Uncertainty over whether the inflation rise is structural or seasonal” is driving positioning, VanEck’s Arian Neiron said, according to a market wrap. 2
That inflation test lands on Wednesday, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases November CPI at 11:30am AEDT. CPI, or the consumer price index, tracks changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services and is the country’s main inflation gauge. 3
For supermarkets, the inflation print feeds directly into the interest-rate debate and household budgets. Higher rates can pressure consumer staples by lifting bond yields and reducing the appeal of dividend-heavy defensives, while also weighing on spending outside essentials.
Coles’ larger rival Woolworths Group also finished lower, with its share price at A$28.84 late Tuesday, the company’s website showed. 4
Regulatory scrutiny remains an overhang for the supermarket duopoly. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a Dec. 14 statement that a ban on “excessive” grocery pricing is now law and will take effect on July 1, 2026, applying to very large retailers under the Food and Grocery Code. 5
Political pressure intensified this week as Nationals leader David Littleproud argued the competition regulator should have stronger powers to tackle alleged unfair pricing by major supermarkets, a report said. 6
On the chart, Tuesday’s slide put the day’s low near A$20.55 in focus as a short-term support level — a price area where buyers have tended to step in. The A$21.11 intraday high now sits as a nearby resistance marker, where selling pressure can re-emerge.
But the next move hinges on macro data: a hotter-than-expected CPI print could harden rate expectations and keep pressure on consumer defensives, while a softer number could ease the yield backdrop and revive demand for staples. Regulatory headlines also risk swinging sentiment in a stock that has traded as a proxy for pricing power.
