London, Jan 6, 2026, 07:58 GMT — Premarket
BAE Systems (BAES.L) shares closed up 5.53% on Monday at 1,851 pence (£18.51), putting the UK defence group in focus ahead of Tuesday’s London open. The stock traded between 1,796 and 1,851 pence on about 8.6 million shares and remains below its 52-week high of 2,071 pence, data showed. 1
The move matters because defence names helped push the FTSE 100 through 10,000 for the first time on Monday after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro reignited geopolitical risk. BAE rose more than 5% alongside peers including Babcock and Chemring, Reuters reported. 2
For BAE, the timing is awkwardly neat: the stock is being repriced on headlines just weeks before its next set of numbers, when investors will look for hard evidence that higher security spending is turning into funded programmes and cash. In a Nov. 12 trading statement, the company said it expected 2025 sales to rise 8% to 10% and underlying EBIT — profit before interest and tax — to climb 9% to 11% on a constant-currency basis, which strips out exchange-rate swings. It also forecast free cash flow, the cash generated after capital spending, of more than £1.1 billion and said it would announce preliminary results for the year on Feb. 18, 2026. 3
Across Europe, aerospace and defence stocks outperformed on Monday, with the sector index hitting its highest level since late October as investors reacted to weekend developments in Venezuela. Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Saab were among the biggest gainers, while Jefferies analysts said the episode reinforced calls to raise defence budgets quickly and kept the sector sensitive to headline risk. 4
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned said rising threats tend to feed into bigger military budgets, a dynamic that supports contractors with long-dated programmes. “Almost always, when threats of military action increase, defense budgets move higher,” he said. 5
That leaves BAE trading on two tracks: geopolitics in the morning and execution in the quarter. Investors will look for follow-through in programme funding and margin visibility, rather than a one-off risk premium in the share price.
On the chart, Monday’s close puts the 2,000-pence round number back in view. Any pullback toward the 1,800 area would test whether fresh buyers are prepared to defend the breakout.
But defence stocks can reverse quickly if the geopolitical temperature cools, or if budget headlines fail to translate into signed orders and delivery schedules. For BAE, the timing of customer payments and currency swings remain a swing factor for reported earnings and cash flow.
