Sydney, January 6, 2026, 21:55 AEDT — Market closed
- Australian shares fell as bank losses outweighed a rally in miners.
- BlueScope Steel surged to a multi-year high after a cash takeover approach.
- Investors turn to Wednesday’s inflation data for the next read on rate risks.
Australian shares fell on Tuesday, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing down 0.5% at 8,682.8, as big banks dragged the benchmark despite strength in miners and a takeover-fuelled jump in BlueScope Steel. Financials slid 1.8%, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia down 3% and the other major lenders off about 2% to 2.4%. Markets are now focused on Wednesday’s inflation data, with traders pricing roughly a 33% chance of a February rate hike; “If the market starts pricing in rate increases, the ASX is likely to see more differentiated performance across sectors rather than a broad rally,” said Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia. 1
The next test is November consumer price data, due Wednesday, which investors will use to gauge whether inflation is easing fast enough to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia on hold. Economists expect headline inflation to cool to 3.7% in November from 3.8% a month earlier, while the trimmed mean — a core inflation gauge that strips out the biggest price moves — is seen staying above the central bank’s 2%–3% target band. 2
Commodity prices are complicating that rate story. Copper has pushed above $13,000 a metric ton on supply worries and a global scramble to secure critical minerals, a backdrop that has kept support under miners even as investors rotate away from rate-sensitive stocks. 3
BlueScope ended 21% higher at A$29.54 after SGH and U.S.-based Steel Dynamics floated an all-cash A$30-a-share approach that would split the steelmaker’s Australian and North American assets. BlueScope said it was considering the latest proposal and noted it had rebuffed three earlier approaches involving Steel Dynamics or groups with it. 4
Outside the heavyweight sectors, investors chased some higher-beta names. DroneShield gained about 15% on the day, while Silex Systems slumped about 33%, according to the ASX 200’s leading movers. 2
The Australian dollar was at $0.6726 as of 4 p.m. Sydney time, while the RBA’s cash rate target stands at 3.60% and its next policy decision is scheduled for Feb. 3. 5
A hotter CPI print — or sticky core inflation — would likely push traders to price a higher probability of a February move, threatening more downside for banks and other rate-sensitive sectors. A pullback in industrial metals after their sharp run would also test how much of the miners’ strength is fundamentals-driven versus positioning.
