New York, January 6, 2026, 10:02 EST — Regular session
- Dow-linked DIA up 0.05% in early trade; broader U.S. equity ETFs also higher
- Fed Governor Stephen Miran said “well over 100 basis points” of cuts are justified in 2026
- Venezuela and oil remain in focus as traders look to JOLTS Wednesday and payrolls Friday
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Dow and trades like a stock, edged up 0.05% to $490.02 in early trade on Tuesday. It has moved between $488.57 and $490.95, while SPY rose 0.17% and QQQ gained 0.43%.
The Dow is consolidating near record territory after Monday’s sharp rally, with traders still parsing the market impact of Venezuela’s shock and the swing in energy and bank shares. The next test is whether rate-cut talk and incoming labor data can keep risk appetite intact.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends Jan. 31, told Fox Business that “well over 100 basis points” of rate cuts were justified this year — basis points are hundredths of a percentage point. The Fed cut its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points in December to a 3.50%-3.75% range, but Miran said policy remained restrictive. 1
At the opening bell, the Dow was up 10.2 points, or 0.02%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also ticked higher. Investors are bracing for a data-heavy week of labor reports after Monday’s outsized move. 2
On Monday, the Dow rose 1.23% to a record close of 48,977.18 after a U.S. military strike captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, helping lift energy and financial shares. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said energy stocks were “benefiting from the expectation” that U.S. firms could invest more in Venezuela. Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick said “the mood has been favoring financial stocks” as investors looked beyond tech. 3
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent up 0.74% at $62.22 a barrel and U.S. crude up 0.7% at $58.73. PVM analyst Tamas Varga said it was “premature” to judge Maduro’s capture’s impact but that “oil supply will be sufficient in 2026.” Rystad’s Janiv Shah estimated “only 300,000 barrels per day” of additional supply could arrive in the next two to three years on limited new spending. 4
On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 47.9 in December; a reading below 50 signals contraction. Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein said she remained “cautious on the extent of recovery” in traditional capital-spending categories this year. The weak factory backdrop has kept rate expectations and the labor-market runway in focus. 5
But the calm could break if the labor reports surprise and push Treasury yields higher, or if Venezuela uncertainty keeps energy prices elevated and squeezes margins. A reversal in banks, which helped drive Monday’s rally, would also weigh on the Dow.
Next up is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by the December employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Those releases will likely decide whether the Dow can build on its record close. 6
