New York, Jan 6, 2026, 11:20 EST
- UBS reiterated a Neutral rating on Apple and kept a $280 price target, citing slower App Store growth in the December quarter.
- BofA Securities and Evercore ISI maintained bullish calls and $325 targets, pointing to steadier App Store trends.
- Analysts flagged gaming and China as key soft spots in recent App Store data.
UBS reiterated a Neutral rating on Apple on Tuesday and kept a $280 price target, saying App Store growth slowed in the December 2025 quarter. The bank estimated growth at about 7%, down from 12% and 10% in the June and September 2025 quarters, and about 5% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis — stripping out currency swings. UBS said the March 2026 quarter still looks like a hurdle even with easier comparisons of roughly 200 basis points, or two percentage points. 1
The App Store is a key driver of Apple’s services business, which investors watch closely for recurring revenue and higher margins than hardware. Third-party app spending and download data has become a common read-through for the December quarter, Apple’s fiscal first quarter, when holiday demand can swing results.
The focus is sharpened by the fact that Apple does not break out App Store revenue in its financial statements. That leaves investors leaning on analyst models and external trackers for clues on whether services growth is holding up as the iPhone market matures.
BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated a Buy rating and a $325 target, estimating App Store revenue of about $8.6 billion for Apple’s fiscal first quarter, up 6.8% from a year earlier, based on third-party tracking. Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani also reiterated an Outperform rating and kept a $325 target, saying App Store revenue growth has run around 6% in recent months even as gaming remains the main drag, particularly in China and Japan. Daryanani said categories such as social networking, music, and photo and video apps showed gains, and he expects Apple Pay, iCloud and licensing to help support overall services revenue. 2
Evercore separately said App Store revenue appeared to have stabilized in December despite persistent weakness in gaming, according to a report by Seeking Alpha. Daryanani pegged December App Store revenue growth at about 6% year-on-year. 3
Apple’s App Store is one of the biggest mobile software storefronts, competing with Alphabet’s Google Play for developer fees and consumer spending. Investors have treated App Store trends as a bellwether for broader digital spending, including subscriptions and in-app purchases.
The swing factor is gaming and China. If gaming remains weak into early 2026 — or if lower fees and other pricing pressure intensify in key markets — services expectations may soften and valuation headroom could narrow.
