New York, January 6, 2026, 14:44 EST — Regular session
- Valero shares fell in afternoon trade after a sharp rally in refinery stocks on Venezuela headlines.
- Analysts say a return of Venezuelan heavy crude could lower costs for Gulf Coast refiners set up for those grades.
- Traders are watching U.S. policy signals, weekly inventory data and Valero’s Jan. 29 earnings.
Valero Energy Corp shares fell on Tuesday as investors weighed whether U.S. moves on Venezuela will reopen a key stream of heavy crude for Gulf Coast refiners. The stock was down 0.9% at $178.92 in afternoon New York trading, after swinging between $177.36 and $183.98.
In a Reuters analysis, industry participants said a full return of Venezuelan oil exports could redirect about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the United States if Washington removes sanctions, trimming fuel production costs for refiners built to run heavy, sulfur-rich grades. Barclays analyst Theresa Chen estimated Valero alone could process an additional 300,000 to 400,000 bpd, while refining software executive Rommel Oates said the extra barrels would “clear by pushing out other heavy crudes and competing aggressively on price”. 1
Refiner shares surged on Monday as traders priced a potential shift in policy and crude flows, with Valero and peers Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and PBF Energy up between 3.4% and 9.3%, Reuters reported. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. 2
The near-term picture is less clear. Venezuela was loading crude only for Chevron on Tuesday while PDVSA loadings for Chinese customers remained on hold for a fifth day, shipping data showed, raising the risk that storage constraints force deeper production cuts. Chevron said it continues to operate “in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” and Reuters said it resumed exports to the U.S. on Monday after a four-day pause. 3
Washington is preparing to meet with oil executives later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan output, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. Executives at Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron had not yet spoken with the administration about operating in Venezuela, four industry executives said. 4
The broader tape offered mixed signals for refiners. Oil fell about 1% on Tuesday, with Brent at $61.07 a barrel and U.S. WTI at $57.53, as traders weighed a comfortable 2026 supply outlook against uncertainty over Venezuela, Reuters reported; PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga said “oil supply will be sufficient in 2026.” A Reuters poll showed traders were looking for U.S. crude and fuel inventories to rise, with API data due after 4:30 p.m. EST and government figures on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST. 5
But the trade rests on policy timing and operational realities. If sanctions stay in place or shipping bottlenecks persist, Venezuelan barrels may not reach Gulf Coast plants fast enough to affect near-term results, and a softer demand backdrop could narrow refining margins — the gap between crude costs and fuel prices.
Investors also have a nearer marker on the calendar: Valero is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 29 before the market opens, followed by a 10 a.m. ET conference call. Any guidance on crude sourcing, refinery utilization and renewable diesel profitability is likely to set the tone for VLO into February. 6
