New York, Jan 6, 2026, 15:17 EST — Regular session
ConocoPhillips shares (COP.N) fell 1.8% to $97.39 by 3:02 p.m. EST, retreating with other U.S. oil majors after a sharp move a day earlier. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) was down 2.9% and Chevron (CVX.N) slid 4.5%.
Oil prices eased as traders weighed expectations of ample global supply in 2026 against uncertainty over Venezuelan output after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro at the weekend. Brent crude was down 1.1% at $61.07 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.4% to $57.53 by early afternoon. “Oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil; Morgan Stanley analysts said the market could be in a surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half, while U.S. inventory data due Tuesday and Wednesday could steer near-term prices. 1
The stock had risen more than 2% on Monday after President Donald Trump signaled U.S. oil companies may get wider access to Venezuela’s heavy crude and to assets seized in 2007. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. Analysts at J.P. Morgan said ConocoPhillips has arbitration claims approaching $10 billion — legal awards from dispute panels — that could have a higher chance of recovery if policy shifts. 2
But turning Venezuela’s Orinoco belt reserves into marketable barrels is expensive: much of the oil is heavy or extra-heavy and needs blending with diluent, or thinner oil, and upgrading before it can be moved and processed. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates breakeven costs in the Orinoco average more than $80 a barrel — the oil price needed to cover costs — and Reuters columnist Ron Bousso noted political risk remains high. “The opportunity must be compelling enough to offset the substantial political risk that will persist in the years ahead,” said Carlos Bellorin, an analyst at Welligence Energy; ConocoPhillips has said it aims to generate free cash flow — cash left after capital spending — even if oil falls to $35. 3
ConocoPhillips’ next scheduled catalyst is its fourth-quarter earnings conference call on Feb. 5 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. The company also posted “Sensitivity & Guidance Items” slides dated Jan. 5, which investors will parse for how management plans to run spending and returns if oil stays under pressure. 4
