Sydney, Jan 7, 2026, 16:55 AEDT — Market closed
- BHP closed up 1.0% at A$47.70, within about 2% of its 52-week high.
- Copper hit records above $13,000 a metric ton this week, while iron ore pushed to a five-month high on China demand.
- Investors are looking ahead to BHP’s Jan. 20 operational review for updates on output, costs and guidance.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) shares ended 1.02% higher at A$47.70 on Wednesday, outpacing a modest 0.15% rise in the S&P/ASX 200 as heavyweight miners tracked firm commodity prices. Rio Tinto gained 1.62%, while Fortescue Metals edged down 0.18%.
The move leaves BHP near its 52-week high as traders weigh whether the recent lift in iron ore and copper can carry into the company’s next round of updates. BHP is scheduled to release its half-year operational review on Jan. 20 and report results on Feb. 17, events that often reset expectations for volumes, unit costs and capital spending.
Copper has been doing much of the heavy lifting. Prices surged to records above $13,000 a metric ton, and SP Angel analyst John Meyer said, “Copper prices need to rise further to persuade miners to generate significant new production.” Citi estimates refined copper production of 26.9 million tons this year, implying a 308,000-ton deficit; Concord Resources’ Duncan Hobbs said metals were “rallying on the thematics of critical minerals and security of supply chains,” while Macquarie’s Alice Fox warned, “Not all of this will be ‘new’ metal, but it suggests the global market was in a sizeable surplus of over 500,000 tons last year.”
Iron ore has also firmed, supporting Australia’s large-cap miners. The most-traded May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.69% to 801 yuan a ton on Tuesday, while benchmark February ore on the Singapore Exchange climbed to $106.55 a ton; the report said steelmakers were restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. 1
In Australia, the macro backdrop stayed mixed. Data showed the monthly CPI was flat in November and the annual pace slowed to 3.4%, but the trimmed mean — a core gauge that strips out extreme price moves — rose 0.3% on the month and held at 3.2% year on year; investors still see a 33% risk the Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates in February. Oxford Economics Australia’s Harry Murphy Cruise said the central bank “continues to focus on the quarterly measure to inform rate movements.” 2
But the rally carries risks. Copper’s jump has been tied to supply disruptions and stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs, and any easing in those pressures — or a cooling in Chinese steel demand — would hit BHP’s two biggest earnings drivers.
Technically, BHP finished about 1.7% below its 52-week high of A$48.49. A break above that level could pull in momentum buyers, while a slip back through the prior close around A$47.22 would test near-term support.
