New York, January 7, 2026, 07:34 EST — Premarket
- Oil-linked shares and ETFs weaken before the open as crude prices extend losses tied to a U.S.-Venezuela supply deal
- Exxon and Chevron fall in early trading; USO and XOP point lower
- Focus turns to U.S. inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET and a White House meeting with oil executives expected late week
U.S. oil stocks and oil-linked exchange-traded funds slipped in premarket trading on Wednesday as crude prices fell after President Donald Trump said the United States struck a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude. Brent futures were at $60.59 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $56.86 by 1104 GMT. “Market participants seem to believe now that those volumes could be smaller,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote, though Morgan Stanley has flagged a possible surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in early 2026. 1
The issue for markets is how quickly those barrels land and who buys them. Chevron currently controls Venezuelan oil flows to the U.S. under a U.S. authorization and has been exporting about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), Reuters reported, and officials have discussed sales mechanisms that could include auctions to U.S. buyers. U.S. Gulf Coast heavy-oil prices also reacted, with differentials — the discount or premium of a grade versus a benchmark — slipping about 50 cents a barrel on Tuesday on the prospect of more Venezuelan supply. 2
Investors are also watching the politics bleed into boardrooms. Trump is expected to meet oil company executives at the White House late this week, likely on Friday, according to three sources cited by Reuters, as his administration argues output can be lifted faster with equipment and technology. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, was more cautious, saying, “It’s hard to imagine increases beyond 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day in the next year.” 3
In early indications, the United States Oil Fund (USO) — an ETF that tracks near-month WTI futures — was down about 2.4%, while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fell about 1.5% and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) slid about 2.4%. Exxon Mobil was down roughly 3.4% at $121.05 and Chevron fell about 4.4% to $156.54, while ConocoPhillips dropped about 2.2% at $97.11; oilfield services names were mixed, with SLB off about 0.4% and Halliburton down about 3.5%.
Refiners, which can benefit when cheaper heavy crude matches their configurations, also traded lower in early moves. Phillips 66 was down about 2.4%, Marathon Petroleum fell about 2.6% and Valero slipped about 1.2%. Phillips 66 has the hardware for Venezuelan crude, and CEO Mark Lashier told a conference audience, “We’ve got refineries designed for the long term to process that crude,” while warning it would take “years, if not decades” of upstream investment to fully unlock supply. 4
Traders will get a fresh read on demand and refinery runs from U.S. inventory figures later on Wednesday. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 2.77 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude stocks last week, Reuters reported, while a Reuters poll of eight analysts pegged crude inventories up about 500,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 2. The government’s weekly inventory report is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. 5
But the downside case is straightforward: the “headline barrels” never become real barrels, or they arrive faster than demand can absorb at a time when investors are already primed to talk about surplus. Any change in sanctions mechanics, shipping, or Venezuelan field conditions could flip the supply story again, and energy equities would likely follow crude.
Next up is the U.S. inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET, then investor attention shifts to Washington’s late-week sit-down with oil executives on Venezuela and any guidance on timelines, licenses and buyers.
