New York, January 7, 2026, 11:10 EST — Regular session
- UnitedHealth shares slid more than 2% in late morning trade, reversing part of Tuesday’s jump
- Bernstein lifted its price target to $444; Evercore ISI started coverage with a $400 target
- Medicare Advantage rate and enrollment updates sit near-term alongside the Jan. 27 results
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shares fell more than 2% on Wednesday, tracking a broader retreat in managed-care insurers. The stock was down $8.53 at $340.44 in late morning trading, while Humana slid 1.4% and Cigna dropped 2.1%.
The move comes with investors bracing for UnitedHealth’s full-year results later this month, when the company is due to set out 2026 guidance. A key focus is the medical care ratio — the share of premium revenue that goes to medical claims — after a stretch of elevated utilization across the sector. 1
Policy catalysts are also lining up. Cantor Fitzgerald flagged late January or early February for a preliminary Medicare Advantage rate notice and mid-February for fresh CMS enrollment data, both of which can reset expectations for 2026 margins. 2
In a note on Wednesday, Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter cut Humana to “Equal Weight” from “Overweight” and questioned the company’s ability to hit 2026 margin goals without benefit cuts. Wells Fargo said investors looking for a Medicare Advantage recovery should lean toward CVS Health and UnitedHealth instead, while warning of a choppier backdrop for Medicaid and federal reimbursement. 3
Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes kept an “Outperform” rating and nudged his UnitedHealth price target up to $444 from $440, calling the insurer his “top pick for 2026.” Wilkes wrote that he expects a “solid recovery in early 2026” that becomes a “multi-year turnaround,” even as he flagged “bumps” along the way. 4
Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $400 price target, arguing the turnaround becomes clearer as the company moves through 2026. Anderson told clients that 2026 is a transition year, with 2027 and 2028 likely to show bigger improvement. 5
UnitedHealth had jumped nearly 3% on Tuesday, helping lift the Dow, as upbeat analyst calls hit the market. Wednesday’s drop pared back that move. 6
The broader tape was choppy after data showed U.S. private payrolls rose by 41,000 in December, short of economists’ forecasts, and traders looked to Friday’s government jobs report for a clearer read on hiring. For insurers, swings in rates and the economy can feed into both investment income and cost trends. 7
But the downside case hasn’t gone away: medical costs can stay sticky while Washington keeps squeezing Medicare Advantage payments, leaving less room for pricing mistakes. CVS, Humana and UnitedHealth have already said they will pull back on some Medicare Advantage offerings for 2026 as reimbursement pressure builds. 8
For UnitedHealth, the next hard catalyst is January 27, when it reports results and sets out 2026 guidance before the opening bell. Investors will listen for any sign that claim trends are easing and for updated targets on margins across UnitedHealthcare and Optum.
