New York, January 7, 2026, 13:23 (ET) — Regular session
- Oracle shares edged lower in afternoon trade as investors weighed a bullish Jefferies call.
- Analysts see a long runway for AI-driven cloud demand, but execution and funding remain in focus.
- Next catalysts include Friday’s U.S. payrolls report and Oracle’s Jan. 9 dividend record date.
Oracle Corp (ORCL) shares slipped on Wednesday as investors digested a Jefferies note earlier this week that reiterated a Buy rating and kept a $400 price target. The stock was down about 0.2% at $193.40 in afternoon trade, after moving between $192.20 and $195.49. About 6 million shares had changed hands. 1
The stakes are bigger than a one-day move. Oracle’s AI push hinges on turning signed cloud contracts into revenue while it expands data-center capacity. In its latest quarterly report, Oracle said remaining performance obligations — booked contracts not yet recorded as revenue — rose to $523 billion, and finance chief Doug Kehring said new commitments from Meta, Nvidia and others helped drive the jump; the company also declared a 50-cent dividend payable Jan. 23 to shareholders on record Jan. 9. 2
Macro is in the mix, too, because Oracle trades like a long-duration growth stock when rate expectations swing. Data from payrolls processor ADP showed U.S. private employment rose 41,000 in December, missing the 47,000 expected in a Reuters poll. Friday’s government jobs report could reset interest-rate bets and pull big tech with it. 3
In a broader 2026 software playbook, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill urged investors to stay selective and said “’26 will be another year of gradual AI monetization.” He said faster growth would be needed to “ease AI disintermediation fears,” a worry that chatbots and automation may chip away at parts of the software stack. Thill listed Oracle among Jefferies’ top large-cap picks. 4
Jefferies also framed Oracle as a rebound story after a steep pullback tied to concerns over heavy AI investment, Investors.com reported. The analysts said OpenAI represents about 57% of Oracle’s contract backlog and expect meaningful AI revenue by fiscal 2027. Oracle is still roughly 40% below a September peak near $346, even with recent stabilisation. 5
Big-cap software traded unevenly on Wednesday. Microsoft rose about 2.1% while IBM slipped nearly 1.0%, leaving Oracle stuck in the middle of the pack even with upbeat analyst chatter swirling around the group.
The broader tape stayed firm. The S&P 500 proxy SPY edged up about 0.2% and the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ gained roughly 0.6%, a backdrop that can help support richly valued tech when the market is in a risk-on mood.
But the timetable for building out AI capacity is still a moving target. A Latitude Media report on Wednesday said the planned “Stargate” data-center campus in Saline Township, Michigan — tied to OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank — still needs environmental permits and financing, highlighting how power, permitting and funding can slow projects. Any slip in construction schedules, or higher costs of capital, could pressure sentiment before the revenue catch-up arrives. 6
Traders now look to the U.S. Labor Department’s December jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 9, with Oracle’s Jan. 9 dividend record date falling the same day. Inflation data follows on Jan. 13 with the CPI report, while Oracle has said it expects to announce fiscal third-quarter results in mid-March — but the nearer catalyst for the stock is the payrolls report on Jan. 9. 7
